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Globalization, Fertility, and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

Author

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  • Osea Giuntella

    (PITT - University of Pittsburgh - Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE), National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

  • Lorenzo Rotunno

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Luca Stella

    (Freie Universität Berlin, CESifo - LMU - Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] = Ludwig Maximilians Universität München, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

Abstract

Declines in marriage and fertility rates in many developed countries have fostered research debate and increasing policy attention. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on fertility and marital behavior in Germany, which was a lowest-low fertility setting until recently. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated individuals, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (the extensive margin). We find evidence of some fertility postponement and significant effects on completed fertility, but we see little evidence of a significant impact on marital behavior. Our results inform the public debate on fertility rates in settings with lowest-low fertility, such as Germany, during the period under investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility, and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," Post-Print hal-03999500, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03999500
    DOI: 10.1215/00703370-10275366
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-03999500
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    Cited by:

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    2. Peter Levell & Matthias Parey & Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique, 2023. "Household responses to trade shocks," IFS Working Papers W23/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Pham Phuong Ngoc & Dainn Wie & Hanol Lee, 2024. "The Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Women’s Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 23-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    4. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "The Effects of FDI Liberalization on Structural Transformation and Demographic Change: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 16094, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ngoc, Pham Phuong & Lee, Hanol & Wie, Dainn, 2024. "Trade liberalization and women's marriage and fertility decisions in Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1071-1082.
    6. Anna Matysiak & Daniela Bellani & Honorata Bogusz, 2023. "Industrial Robots and Regional Fertility in European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-36, December.
    7. Wei Luo & Xianqiang Zou, 2024. "Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-31, September.
    8. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; Labor mar ket out comes; Fertility; Marriage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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