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Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America

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  • Olivier Bargain

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

  • Ulugbek Aminjonov

Abstract

Since March 2020, governments have recommended or enacted lockdown policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Yet, poorer segments of the population cannot afford to stay at home and must continue to work. In this paper, we test whether work-related mobility is effectively influenced by the local intensity of poverty. To do so, we exploit poverty data and Google mobility data for 242 regions of nine Latin American and African countries. We find that the drop in work-related mobility during the first lockdown period was indeed significantly lower in high-poverty regions compared to other regions. We also illustrate how higher poverty has induced a faster spread of the virus. The policy implication is that social protection measures in the form of food or cash trasfers must be complementary to physical distancing measures. Further research must evaluate how such transfers, when implemented, have attenuated the difference between poor and non-poor regions in terms of exposure to the virus.

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  • Olivier Bargain & Ulugbek Aminjonov, 2021. "Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America," Post-Print hal-03683517, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03683517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03683517
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    1. de Palma, André & Vosough, Shaghayegh & Liao, Feixiong, 2022. "An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 372-397.
    2. Aminjonov, Ulugbek & Bargain, Olivier & Bernard, Tanguy, 2023. "Gimme shelter. Social distancing and income support in times of pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Wenjin Long & Junxia Zeng & Tongquan Sun, 2021. "Who Lost Most Wages and Household Income during the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Poor Rural China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 95-116, November.
    4. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Paula Barrios, 2022. "Subnational fiscal accounts under pressure: the effects of COVID-19 in a developing country," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 306, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Manyong, Victor & Bokanga, Mpoko & Akonkwa Nyamuhirwa, Dieu-Merci & Bamba, Zoumana & Adeoti, Razack & Mwepu, Gregoire & Cole, Steven M. & Dontsop Nguezet, Paul Martin, 2022. "COVID-19 outbreak and rural household food security in the Western Democratic Republic of the Congo," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Dessy, Sylvain & Gninafon, Horace & Tiberti, Luca & Tiberti, Marco, 2023. "Free compulsory education can mitigate COVID-19 disruptions’ adverse effects on child schooling," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Dessy, Sylvain & Gninafon, Horace & Tiberti, Luca & Tiberti, Marco, 2021. "COVID-19 and Children’s School Resilience: Evidence from Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315263, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Delphine Boutin & Laurène Petifour & Haris Megzari, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Working Papers hal-03623601, HAL.
    10. Galanis, Giorgos & Georgiadis, Andreas, 2024. "Socioeconomic conditions and contagion dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with and without mitigation measures: Evidence from 185 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Marco Fattore & Stefania M.L. Rimoldi, 2023. "Effects of the Covid Pandemic on the Economic Vulnerability of Italian Society," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 247(4), pages 37-68, December.
    12. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Mwale, Martin Limbikani & Kamninga, Tony Mwenda, 2022. "Land rights and the impact of farm input subsidies on poverty convergence," MPRA Paper 112431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Akim, Al-Mouksit & Ayivodji, Firmin & Kouton, Jeffrey, 2024. "Food security and the COVID-19 employment shock in Nigeria: Any ex-ante mitigating effects of past remittances?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Pérez Gelves, Jhon Jairo & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Díaz Flórez, Guillermo Andrés, 2023. "Energy poverty assessment and the impact of Covid-19: An empirical analysis of Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Amarante, Verónica, 2022. "Fortalecimiento de los sistemas de protección social de la región: aprendizajes a partir de la pandemia de COVID-19," Documentos de Proyectos 47830, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Lucia Svabova & Eva Nahalkova Tesarova & Marek Durica & Lenka Strakova, 2021. "Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 261-284, June.
    19. Aubert, Cécile & Dang, Hai-Anh H & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2022. "The Unequal Impact of the COVID Pandemic: Theory and Evidence on Health and Economic Outcomes for Different Income Groups," IZA Discussion Papers 15396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Delphine BOUTIN & Laurène PETIFOUR & Haris MEGZARI, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2022-05, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Poverty; Lockdown; Compliance; Work mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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