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Anticiper les conséquences économiques pour le tourisme d’une petite destination insulaire : l’exemple de la Polynésie française

Author

Listed:
  • Yann Otcenasek

    (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française, UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française)

  • Sylvain Petit

    (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française, LARSH - Laboratoire de Recherche Sociétés & Humanités - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - INSA Hauts-De-France - INSA Institut National des Sciences Appliquées Hauts-de-France - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées, UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française)

Abstract

L'objectif de ce chapitre est de mesurer et d'anticiper les changements, suite à une modification concurrentielle du marché du transport aérien international, pour une petite destination insulaire. Pour cela, nous nous appuyons sur le cas de la Polynésie française. Après une longue et profonde phase de recul entre 2001 et 2011, la fréquentation touristique de cette destination est aujourd'hui en situation de croissance soutenue (environ +9% par an en 2018 et 2019). Cette croissance fut aidée par l'arrivée de nouvelles compagnies aériennes internationales (French Bee et United Airlines) sur le principal tronçon commercial. L'apport de cet article est de mesurer les effets de ce changement. Grâce à une modélisation économétrique, il est mis en évidence qu'outre les éléments temporels (tendance et identifications des périodes saisonnières), trois variables semblent avoir un effet sur les arrivées touristiques : le niveau d'activité économique de la Polynésie française, le nombre d'avions arrivants en Polynésie française et le taux de change avec le dollar. D'après ces estimations, la croissance des arrivées touristiques sera fortement impactée par cette nouvelle capacité du transport aérien, ce qui illustre l'urgence d'adapter le produit touristique à cette nouvelle croissance. Une comparaison est effectuée avec les données réelles observées et elle permet de comprendre que ces outils quantitatifs peuvent être très utiles aux gestionnaires de destination, notamment pour le cas d'une petite économie insulaire, où de petites variations sur un marché (ici, le transport aérien international) peuvent avoir des fortes conséquences économiques. Pour terminer, les résultats sont commentés avec le contexte sanitaire de la pandémie de covid-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Yann Otcenasek & Sylvain Petit, 2023. "Anticiper les conséquences économiques pour le tourisme d’une petite destination insulaire : l’exemple de la Polynésie française," Post-Print hal-02138654, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02138654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sylvain Petit & Florent Venayre, 2018. "L'ouverture du marché polynésien du transport aérien international menacée par la communication de l'Autorité de la concurrence," Post-Print hal-01962939, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Botti & Sylvain Petit & Linjia Zhang, 2020. "Strategic decision concerning tourist origins portfolio: A decision process based on the ELECTRE method and applied to French Polynesia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(5), pages 830-843, August.

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