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Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban

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Listed:
  • Nour Wehbe

    (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Bassam Assaf

    (LU / ULB - الجامعة اللبنانية [بيروت] = Lebanese University [Beirut] = Université libanaise [Beyrouth])

  • Salem Darwich

    (LU / ULB - الجامعة اللبنانية [بيروت] = Lebanese University [Beirut] = Université libanaise [Beyrouth])

Abstract

This article studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Lebanon over the period 1971-2012. This relationship is examined using cointegration and Granger causality tests. The results of the estimates indicate that economic growth and electricity consumption in Lebanon are not cointegrated and that there is no causal relationship between variables according to Granger's tests. However, a unidirectional causality is detected in the post-war period (1990-2012), ranging from electricity consumption to economic growth. The results of this research prove strongly, and with an econometric approach, that electricity consumption was the fundamental source of economic growth after the civil war in Lebanon, which explains the appearance of this causal relationship. In addition, the most relevant implication of this study is that mitigation of current power generation shortages should be a national priority, given its potential positive effect on the Lebanese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01944291
    DOI: 10.22453/LSJ-019.3.432452
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01944291v2
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    Keywords

    Granger causality; Cointegration analysis; Electricity consumption; Economic growth; Consommation d'électricité; croissance économique; causalité de Granger; cointégration;
    All these keywords.

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