IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/ipppap/halshs-04439196.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation pénale et décisions de justice

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélie Ouss

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Arnaud Philippe

    (University of Bristol [Bristol])

Abstract

Présentation Cette note explore l'effet des politiques pénales sur les décisions de justice et sur la récidive. Elle part de deux constats. Premièrement, il y a un écart considérable entre les peines maximales établies par le code pénal et les sanctions effectivement prononcées par les juridictions. Deuxièmement, il y a eu de nombreuses réformes modifiant les sanctions prévues par le code pénal, la plupart accentuant leur rigueur. Ces réformes influencent-elles les pratiques pénales ? Les auteurs montrent que la grande majorité des changements ciblent des délits rarement ou jamais utilisés et n'ont donc aucun effet sur les verdicts. Par ailleurs, les réformes ciblant des crimes et délits plus fréquemment utilisés n'influencent en pratique pas les décisions de justice. Il y a donc un décalage croissant entre le code pénal et les pratiques pénales, contribuant à une impression de laxisme du système judiciaire. Deux options existent pour réduire cet écart : diminuer les peines maximales prévues, ou augmenter les peines effectives pour les rapprocher du maximum. Nous montrons que la seconde option aurait pour effet d'augmenter considérablement le taux d'incarcération et le coût pour les finances publiques de la justice pénale. Résultats clés Les peines prononcées pour des délits représentent en moyenne 8%du maximum prévu par le code pénal, contre 45% pour les crimes. Les multiples réformes du code pénal, bien qu'elles augmentent les peines potentielles, n'ont pas d'impact sur les décisions de justice. Cela ne fait qu'accroître l'écart conséquent entre les peines possibles et celles effectivement prononcées, posant un problème de compréhension de la loi et de dissuasion. Réduire cet écart en augmentant les peines prononcées aboutirait à des taux d'incarcération extraordinairement élevés, même en faisant l'hypothèse d'effets dissuasifs importants Outre les conséquences sociales d'un tel changement, il impliquerait des dépenses intenables pour les finances publiques : le budget courant de l'administration pénitentiaire devrait augmenter d'au moins 12 milliards d'euros, et l'investissement nécessaire atteindrait entre 60 et 100 milliards d'euros.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélie Ouss & Arnaud Philippe, 2024. "Inflation pénale et décisions de justice," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-04439196, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-04439196
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04439196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04439196/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shawn D. Bushway & Emily G. Owens, 2013. "Framing Punishment: Incarceration, Recommended Sentences, and Recidivism," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 301-331.
    2. Eric Helland & Alexander Tabarrok, 2007. "Does Three Strikes Deter?: A Nonparametric Estimation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(2).
    3. Radha Iyengar, 2008. "I'd rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb: The Unintended Consequences of 'Three-Strikes' Laws," NBER Working Papers 13784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aperjis, Christina & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Miao, Yali, 2014. "Variable temptations and black mark reputations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 70-90.
    2. Roberto Galbiati & Arnaud Philippe, 2014. "3. Enfermez-les tous ! Dissuasion et effets pervers des politiques répressives," Regards croisés sur l'économie, La Découverte, vol. 0(1), pages 44-57.
    3. Ben Vollaard, 2013. "Preventing crime through selective incapacitation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 262-284, March.
    4. Zarruk, David & Rodríguez, Catherine & Ibáñez, Ana María, 2013. "Crime, Punishment, and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Colombian Adolescents," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4617, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. McCrary, Justin & Lee, David S., 2009. "The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt2gh1r30h, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    6. Ramos Maqueda,Manuel & Chen,Daniel Li, 2021. "The Role of Justice in Development : The Data Revolution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9720, The World Bank.
    7. Ross, Amanda, 2012. "Crime, police, and truth-in-sentencing: The impact of state sentencing policy on local communities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 144-152.
    8. repec:pri:cepsud:189lee is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lundberg, Alexander & Mungan, Murat, 2022. "The effect of evidentiary rules on conviction rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 563-576.
    10. Amanda Ross & Anne Walker, 2014. "Low Priority Laws and the Allocation of Police Resources," Working Papers 14-06, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    11. Aurélie Ouss & Arnaud Philippe, 2024. "Les peines planchers sont-elles un outil efficace pour éviter la récidive ?," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-04563087, HAL.
    12. Anusua Datta, 2017. "California’s Three Strikes Law Revisited: Assessing the Long-Term Effects of the Law," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 225-249, June.
    13. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & David A Rivers, 2019. "Optimising Criminal Behaviour and the Disutility of Prison," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1364-1399.
    14. Gabriel Costeira Machado & Cristiano Aguiar De Oliveira, 2018. "The Deterrent Effects Of Brazillian Child Labor Law," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 237, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Dionne, Georges & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Pinquet, Jean, 2013. "A review of recent theoretical and empirical analyses of asymmetric information in road safety and automobile insurance," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 85-97.
    16. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati, 2014. "Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," Post-Print hal-03259811, HAL.
    17. Stuart S. Rosenthal & Amanda Ross, 2010. "Violent Crime, Entrepreneurship, and Cities," NBER Chapters, in: Cities and Entrepreneurship, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ana Maria Ibanez & Catherine Rodriguez & David Zarruk, 2013. "Crime, Punishment, and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Colombian Adolescents," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-413, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    19. Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Benjamin Hansen, 2015. "Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1581-1617, April.
    21. Dara N. Lee, 2011. "The Digital Scarlet Letter: The Effect of Online Criminal Records on Crime," Working Papers 1118, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-04439196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Caroline Bauer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.