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Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multi-Country Setting

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Bréchet

    (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Carmen Camacho

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vladimir M. Veliov

    (ORCOS - Institute of Mathematical Methods in Economics)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to extend the use of integrated assessment models by defining rational policies based on predictive control and adaptive behavior. The paper begins with an review of the main IAMs and their use. Then the concept of Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) is introduced within a general model involving heterogeneous economic agents operating in (and interfering with) a common environment. This concept captures the fact that agents do not have a perfect foresight for several ingredients of the model, including that of the environment. A version of the canonical IAM (DICE) is developed as a benchmark case. The concept of MPNE is then enhanced with adaptive learning about the environmental dynamics and the damages caused by global warming. The approach is illustrated by some numerical experiments in a two-region setting for several scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Bréchet & Carmen Camacho & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2012. "Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multi-Country Setting," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00718659, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00718659
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00718659
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    Cited by:

    1. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi & Stieler, Marleen, 2015. "Using nonlinear model predictive control for dynamic decision problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 112-133.
    2. Greiner, Alfred & Gruene, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Economic growth and the transition from non-renewable to renewable energy," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 417-439, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated assessment; adaptative behavior; learning; climate change; Estimation intégrée; comportement adaptatif; apprentissage; changement climatique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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