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Accession to the WTO and EU Enlargement: What Potential for Trade Increase?

Author

Listed:
  • Mathilde Maurel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Oxana Koukhartchouk

    (ROSES - Réformes et Ouverture des Systèmes Economiques post-Socialistes - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This Paper asks the question of the impact of institutions on trade and tries to estimate the potential for trade increase between CIS, Central Eastern European countries and the EU. The latter is computed using the gravity equation and the procedure introduced by Hausman and Taylor (1981). It is shown that CIS trade is still characterized by a very large trade destruction effect, which implies that trade with EU countries could increase in the long-run in proportion to this trade destruction effect. Furthermore, institutions matter, and the convergence of institutional variables towards the EU standards - under the current process of EU enlargement and application of Russia to join the WTO - can be expected to deepen the level of the European trade integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Oxana Koukhartchouk, 2022. "Accession to the WTO and EU Enlargement: What Potential for Trade Increase?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03607683, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03607683
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
    2. Henri L. F. De Groot & Gert‐Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2004. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 103-123, February.
    3. Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld, 2003. "Why do OECD-Countries trade more?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-092/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Karam, Fida & Zaki, Chahir, 2019. "Why Don’t MENA Countries Trade More? The Curse of Deficient Institutions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 56-77.
    5. Albert Millogo & Ines Trojette, 2020. "Pro-trade effects of MENA immigrants in France: does governance matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3219-3230.
    6. Muhammad Siddique & Muhammad Abdul Quddus & Asim Iqbal, 2022. "Pakistan’s Global Trade Potential with Selected Trading Partners: A Gravity Model Approach Using Static and Dynamic Panel Data," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 4(1), pages 25-37, March.
    7. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Bilateral Trade Talk between Nigeria and India: A Recipe," MPRA Paper 46682, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2008.
    8. Chahir Zaki & Fida Karam, 2017. "Why Don’t MENA Countries Trade More? The Curse of Bad Institutions," Working Papers 1148, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 2003.
    9. Aditya Rangga Yogatama & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2015. "The Role of Democracy and Governance in the Enhancement of Indonesian Exports to the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201504, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jul 2015.
    10. Getachew Magnar Kitila & Fuzhong Chen, 2021. "Multilateral Trade Resistance, International Competitiveness and African International Exports: A Network Perspective," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(10), pages 111-126.
    11. Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Giray Gozgor & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2017. "Institutions and gravity model: the role of political economy and corporate governance," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 421-436, December.
    12. Olivier Lamotte, 2003. "Disintegration and trade in South-eastern Europe," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    13. Sebil Olalekan Oshota & Bashir Adelowo Wahab, 2022. "Institutional Quality and Intra-Regional Trade Flows: Evidence from ECOWAS," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 73-106, December.
    14. Arjan Lejour & Vladimir Solanic & Paul Tang, 2009. "EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 127-144, May.
    15. Setyastuti, Rini & Adiningsih, Sri & Widodo, Tri, 2018. "The Role of Governance Quality in Increasing Intra-ASEAN Trade," MPRA Paper 85258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Wu, Jun & Li, Shaomin & Samsell, Darryl, 2012. "Why some countries trade more, some trade less, some trade almost nothing: The effect of the governance environment on trade flows," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 225-238.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accession to the WTO; EU enlargement; Gravity equation; Transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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