IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hai/wpaper/201512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • A. Nam Tran

    (University of Missouri)

  • David Lobell

    (Stanford University)

  • Michael J. Roberts

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Wolfram Schlenker

    (Columbia University, National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Jarrod R. Welch

    (Charles River Associates)

Abstract

Some predict that climate change will decrease average crop yield and increase yield variability. While the first effect, as well as possible adaption strategies, have been studied extensively, the second is less well understood and the topic of this paper. A unique feature of commodity crops is that they can be stored between periods, thereby allowing storage to smooth production shocks across time. We pair a rational competitive storage model with a statistical analysis linking global production of the four major commodity crops (maize, wheat, rice and soybeans) and climate forecasts from 16 global climate models. The rational storage model predicts a doubling of average storage levels by 2050, slightly raising average prices to cover higher storage losses, but at the same significantly reducing price variability compared to a storage rule that is optimal under past yield distributions. Storage market responses to future yield variability greatly mitigate potential welfare losses of greater production volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Nam Tran & David Lobell & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker & Jarrod R. Welch, 2015. "Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change," Working Papers 201512, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201512
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_15-12.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1972. "The Consumer Does Benefit from Feasible Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(3), pages 476-493.
    3. Lucille Williamson & Paul Williamson, 1942. "What We Eat," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 698-703.
    4. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    5. Daniel Urban & Michael Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker & David Lobell, 2012. "Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 525-533, May.
    6. Brennan, Donna & Williams, Jeffrey & Wright, Brian D, 1997. "Convenience Yield without the Convenience: A Spatial-Temporal Interpretation of Storage under Backwardation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1009-1022, July.
    7. Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & Martin Scherer & Monika Verma, 2012. "Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 514-518, July.
    8. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    9. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, September.
    10. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
    11. Benton F. Massell, 1969. "Price Stabilization and Welfare," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 83(2), pages 284-298.
    12. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    13. Gustafson, Robert L., 1958. "Carryover levels for grains: A method for determining amounts that are optimal under specified conditions," Technical Bulletins 157231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
    15. Frederick V. Waugh, 1944. "Does the Consumer Benefit from Price Instability?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 58(4), pages 602-614.
    16. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, August.
    17. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011?," Issue Reports 112927, Farm Foundation.
    18. José A. Scheinkman & Jack Schechtman, 1983. "A Simple Competitive Model with Production and Storage," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(3), pages 427-441.
    19. Paul A. Samuelson, 1972. "Rejoinder," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(3), pages 500-503.
    20. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Goodell, John W. & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Gozgor, Giray, 2024. "Impact of climate risk shocks on global food and agricultural markets: A multiscale and tail connectedness analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Measuring Maize Price Volatility in Swaziland using ARCH/GARCH approach," MPRA Paper 51840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Anna Josephson, 2021. "Intra-Household Management of Joint Resources: Evidence from Malawi," Papers 2112.12766, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    4. Buschmann, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Rolinski, Susanne & Biewald, Anne, 2015. "A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211377, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Roshini Brizmohun, 2019. "Impact of climate change on food security of small islands: The case of Mauritius," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(3), pages 154-163, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    3. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Agnolucci, Paolo, 2024. "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Gouel, Christophe & Legrand, Nicolas, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of the Storage Model using Information on Quantities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235599, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    7. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2012. "Commodity Price Adjustment in a Competitive Storage Model with an Application to the US Biofuel Policies," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Juan R. A. Bobenrieth & Eugenio S. A. Bobenrieth & Andrés F. Villegas & Brian D. Wright, 2022. "Estimation of Endogenous Volatility Models with Exponential Trends," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-27, July.
    10. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Gouel, Christophe, 2013. "Optimal food price stabilisation policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-134.
    12. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    13. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-De-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the amazon forest: impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 1514, Chaire Economie du climat.
    15. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    16. Cesar Revoredo, 2000. "On The Solution Of The Dynamic Rational Expectations Commodity Storage Model In The Presence Of Stockholding By Speculators And Processors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 42, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800006209, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth & Juan R.A. Bobenrieth & Ernesto A. Guerra & Brian D. Wright & Di Zeng, 2021. "Putting the Empirical Commodity Storage Model Back on Track: Crucial Implications of a “Negligible” Trend," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1034-1057, May.
    19. Oglend, Atle & Kleppe, Tore Selland, 2017. "On the behavior of commodity prices when speculative storage is bounded," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 52-69.
    20. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Web Technician (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuhius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.