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Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts

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Listed:
  • Jin Ho Kim

    (The George Washington University)

  • Herman O. Stekler

    (The George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper examines an issue in long-run forecasting, evaluating a forecast for which the actual data are not yet available. In this case, we analyze the World Bank’s forecasts of the poverty headcount made in 2002, but the actual data for the terminal date will not be available for some time. The methodology requires one to infer a forecast for an intermediate date for which the data are available. We show that the long-rum projections were extremely accurate because they are consistent with the trends that are observed in the latest available data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Ho Kim & Herman O. Stekler, 2016. "Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts," Working Papers 2016-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-009
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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2016-009.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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