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Empirical Tests Of A Simple Pricing Model For Sugar Futures

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Abstract

In this paper we test the empirical implications of a simple pricing model for commodity futures for the marginal process of prices of sugar futures. According to the pricing model, the futures price bias depends linearly on the conditional variance. We find significant coefficients, from monthly as well as daily data, if the conditional variance is modelled using the GARCH-M model. These estimates imply contango in the futures marked and a net hedging demand on the long side of it.
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  • Nijman, T. & Beetsma, R., 1990. "Empirical Tests Of A Simple Pricing Model For Sugar Futures," Papers 9068, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:tilbur:9068
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    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
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    5. Nijman, Theo & Verbeek, Marno, 1992. "Nonresponse in Panel Data: The Impact on Estimates of a Life Cycle Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 243-257, July-Sept.
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    10. Maschler, M. & Potters, J.A.M. & Tijs, S.H., 1992. "The general nucleolus and the reduced game property," Other publications TiSEM ab187dab-1b5b-40c3-a673-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    20. Talman, A.J.J. & Kamiya, K., 1991. "Simplicial algorithm for computing a core element in a balanced game," Other publications TiSEM 00c6842f-4377-4801-b1fc-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Greenberg, Joseph, 1992. "On the Sensitivity of von Neumann and Morgenstern Abstract Stable Sets: The Stable and the Individual Stable Bargaining Set," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 21(1), pages 41-55.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Wärneryd, 1993. "Anarchy, Uncertainty, And The Emergence Of Property Rights," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Muto, S., 1994. "On licensing policies in Bertrand competition," Other publications TiSEM ef5dd5db-f744-4695-b669-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    4. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data," Other publications TiSEM 0c1ff78c-d484-43bb-bcc3-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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