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Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald U. Mendoza

    (UNICEF Division of Policy and Practice, Social Policy and Economic Analysis Unit)

  • Ryan Jones

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics, International Political Economy and Development (IPED) Program)

  • Gabriel Vergara

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics, International Political Economy and Development (IPED) Program)

Abstract

Analyzing US economic and foreign aid data from 1967 to 2007, this paper investigates whether adverse economic and financial conditions are negatively linked to official development assistance (ODA). It finds empirical evidence that US ODA has tended to decline as its economic conditions worsen. A 1 unit increase in the misery index (sum of inflation and unemployment) is associated with a roughly 0.01 percentage point decline in US ODA expressed as a share of GNI. Furthermore, an increase in financial volatility from 1 percent to 2 percent (measured by the standard deviation of the rate of return of the S&P500) is associated with a decrease in US ODA by about $2.78 billion. Informed by the empirical results in this paper, and based on very rough guesstimates, a potential decline in US ODA of anywhere from 13 to 30 percent could occur depending on the severity of the economic conditions in 2009. This predicted decline in ODA is much lower than some of the guesstimates so far by different analysts. Based on the US historical pattern, ODA is indeed at risk; nevertheless, it need not decline significantly during adverse economic times.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald U. Mendoza & Ryan Jones & Gabriel Vergara, 2009. "Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2009-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Franklin Allen and Giorgia Giovannetti, 2010. "Fragile Countries And The 2008-2009 Crisis," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 13, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    3. Heinrich, Tobias & Kobayashi, Yoshiharu & Bryant, Kristin A., 2016. "Public Opinion and Foreign Aid Cuts in Economic Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    5. Edmund Amann & David Lawson, 2013. "International Crises And Developing Economies: Linkages And Recent Experiences," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 1035-1049, November.
    6. Kobayashi, Yoshiharu & Heinrich, Tobias & Bryant, Kristin A., 2021. "Public support for development aid during the COVID-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2019. "Foreign aid, instability and governance in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/022, African Governance and Development Institute..
    8. Dang, Hai-Anh & Knack, Stephen & Rogers, F. Halsey, 2013. "International aid and financial crises in donor countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 232-250.
    9. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers 201122, CERDI.
    10. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Gnangnon, Sena Kimm, 2013. "The consequences of fiscal episodes in OECD DAC countries for aid supply," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 302-313.
    12. Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
    13. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2010/240, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2009. "The 2008-2009 Financial Crisis and the HIPCs: Another Debt Crisis?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 29, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    15. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers halshs-00613161, HAL.
    17. Debasish Kumar Das & Champa Bati Dutta, 2013. "Global Financial Crisis And Foreign Development Assistance Shocks In Least Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-41, June.
    18. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    19. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers 201301, CERDI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ODA; foreign aid; financial crisis; misery index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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