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Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

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  • Riccardo Colacito
  • Bridget Hoffman
  • Toan Phan

Abstract

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffman & Toan Phan, 2018. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," Working Paper 18-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:18-09
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; temperature; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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