IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/2006-052.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The great inflation and early disinflation in Japan and Germany

Author

Abstract

This paper considers the Great Inflation of the 1970s in Japan and Germany. From 1975 onward, these countries had low inflation relative to other large economies. Traditionally, this success is attributed to stronger discipline on the part of Japan and Germany?s monetary authorities?for example, more willingness to accept temporary unemployment, or greater determination not to monetize government deficits. I instead attribute the success of these countries from the mid-1970s to their governments? and monetary authorities? acceptance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Likewise their higher inflation in the first half of the 1970s is attributable to the fact that their policymakers over this period embraced nonmonetary theories of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Nelson, 2007. "The great inflation and early disinflation in Japan and Germany," Working Papers 2006-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-052.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
    3. Singleton, Kenneth J. (ed.), 1993. "Japanese Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226760667, August.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    5. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:111-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
    8. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    9. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Christina D. Romer, 2005. "Commentary on \\"Origins of the Great Inflation\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 177-186.
    11. Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
    12. Manfred J. M. Neumann, 1997. "Monetary Targeting in Germany," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Iwao Kuroda (ed.), Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, chapter 7, pages 176-210, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. J. M. Culbertson, 1960. "Friedman on the Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(6), pages 617-617.
    14. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1985. "The early history of the Phillips curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 71(Sep), pages 17-24.
    15. Kenneth Singleton, 1993. "Japanese Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sing93-1.
    16. Issing, Otmar, 1997. "Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 67-79, June.
    17. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    19. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew T. & Christoffel, Kai, 2007. "Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2439-2466, November.
    20. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 277-292, December.
    21. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    23. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
    24. Robert L. Hetzel, 1999. "Japanese monetary policy: a quantity theory perspective," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-26.
    25. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    26. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February.
    27. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    28. Taylor, John B., 1989. "Differences in economic fluctuations in Japan and the United States: The role of nominal rigidities," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 127-144, June.
    29. Otmar Issing, 2005. "Why did the Great Inflation not happen in Germany?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 329-336.
    30. Arthur F. Burns, 1978. "Reflections of an Economic Policy Maker," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 725136, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles L. Weise, 2012. "Political Pressures on Monetary Policy during the US Great Inflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 33-64, April.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    3. Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Great Inflation and Central Bank Independence in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 357-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Andreas Beyer & Vitor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2013. "Opting Out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy after the Breakdown of Bretton Woods," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 301-346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Darné, Olivier & Levy-Rueff, Guy & Pop, Adrian, 2024. "The calibration of initial shocks in bank stress test scenarios: An outlier detection based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Suda, Jacek & Zervou, Anastasia S., 2018. "International Great Inflation And Common Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1428-1461, September.
    7. Günes Kamber & Özer Karagedikli & Christie Smith, 2015. "Applying an Inflation-Targeting Lens to Macroprodential Policy "Institutions"," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 395-429, September.
    8. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, September.
    9. Masazumi Wakatabe, 2013. "Central Banking, Japanese Style: Economics and the Bank of Japan, 1945-1985," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 141-160.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, September.
    2. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecoci, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, June.
    3. Andreas Beyer & Vitor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2013. "Opting Out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy after the Breakdown of Bretton Woods," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 301-346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Bluhm, Marcel, 2015. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 181-196.
    8. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
    9. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    10. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Monetary policy and European unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 94-108, Spring.
    11. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, February.
    13. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    14. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    15. Edward Nelson, 2009. "An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 333-368, June.
    16. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 277-292, December.
    17. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    18. Brian Snowdon, 2007. "The New Classical Counter-Revolution: False Path or Illuminating Complement?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 541-562, Fall.
    19. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2013. "The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 393-438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Economic conditions - Japan; Economic conditions - Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.