IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1062.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A state-dependent model for inflation forecasting

Author

Abstract

We develop a parsimonious bivariate model of inflation and unemployment that allows for persistent variation in trend inflation and the NAIRU. The model, which consists of five unobserved components (including the trends) with stochastic volatility, implies a time-varying VAR for changes in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The implied backwards-looking Phillips curve has a time-varying slope that is steeper in the 1970s than in the 1990s. Pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments indicate improvements upon univariate benchmarks. Since 2008, the implied Phillips curve has become steeper and the NAIRU has increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Stella & James H. Stock, 2012. "A state-dependent model for inflation forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 1062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1062/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1062/ifdp1062.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
    2. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2003. "Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18.
    3. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
    4. Krishna Rao & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti & Kieran Walsh, 2010. "Policy analysis using DSGE models: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Oct), pages 23-43.
    5. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.
    6. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Clive W. J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2011. "The Evolution of the Phillips Curve: A Modern Time Series Viewpoint," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 51-66, January.
    8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2010. "The role of expectations and output in the inflation process: an empirical assessment," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2016. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, Nairu and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 551-565, April.
    2. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Murat Tasci & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2014. "How Much Slack Is in the Labor Market? That Depends on What You Mean by Slack," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    4. Fabio Busetti & Pietro Cova & Antonio Maria Conti & Filippo Scoccianti & Libero Monteforte & Giordano Zevi & Valentina Aprigliano & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimili, 2014. "The effects of the crisis on production potential and household spending in Italy," Workshop and Conferences 18, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Vierke, Hauke, 2016. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-208.
    6. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
    7. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2014. "Measuring Price-Level Uncertainty and Instability in the U.S., 1850-2012," Working Papers 2014-33, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    9. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2017. "Short-term inflation forecasting: The M.E.T.A. approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1065-1081.
    10. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    11. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Jana Jonckheere & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Can inflation expectations in business or consumer surveys improve inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Research 348, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    13. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    15. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2014. "Surprise! Euro area inflation has fallen," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 237, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano, 2015. "On the conditional distribution of euro area inflation forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1027, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
    18. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    20. Luis Julián Álvarez & Ana Gómez Loscos & Alberto Urtasun, 2015. "Asymmetries in the relationship between inflation and activity," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue NOV, pages 3-9, November.
    21. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.
    22. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    23. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    2. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2020. "The Nonpuzzling Behavior of Median Inflation," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 3, pages 049-070, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    4. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
    6. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:125-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jenny Lye & Ian McDonald, 2008. "The Eisner Puzzle, the Unemployment Threshold and the Range of Equilibria," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 125-141, May.
    8. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    9. James Hebden & Edward P. Herbst & Jenny Tang & Giorgio Topa & Fabian Winkler, 2020. "How Robust Are Makeup Strategies to Key Alternative Assumptions?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," Working Papers 2010-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    12. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cai, Michael & Del Negro, Marco & Giannoni, Marc P. & Gupta, Abhi & Li, Pearl & Moszkowski, Erica, 2019. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1770-1789.
    15. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    16. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    17. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
    19. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    20. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    21. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    22. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.