A Comprehensive Empirical Evaluation of Biases in Expectation Formation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.042
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2021.
"Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-86.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2020. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 1-86, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2020. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 27308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nagel, Stefan & Xu, Zhengyang, 2023.
"Dynamics of subjective risk premia,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
- Nagel, Stefan & Xu, Zhengyang, 2022. "Dynamics of Subjective Risk Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 17064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Dynamics of Subjective Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 29803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Dynamics of Subjective Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 9693, CESifo.
- Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1, July.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015.
"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mr. Olivier Coibion & Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Andolfatto, David & Hendry, Scott & Moran, Kevin, 2008.
"Are inflation expectations rational?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 406-422, March.
- David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2005. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Macroeconomics 0501002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2007. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Working Paper series 27_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Hassan Afrouzi & Laura Veldkamp, 2019. "Biased Inflation Forecasts," 2019 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023.
"Pockets of Predictability,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
- Timmermann, Allan & Farmer, Leland E. & Schmidt, Lawrence, 2018. "Pockets of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 12885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
- Jörg Breitung & Malte Knüppel, 2021.
"How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 369-392, June.
- Breitung, Jörg & Knüppel, Malte, 2018. "How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content," Discussion Papers 07/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
- Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
- , & Stein, Tobias, 2021.
"Equity premium predictability over the business cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
- Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Predictability,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023.
"On FIRE, news, and expectations,"
Working Papers
42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot, 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Haab & Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
- Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.
- Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023.
"Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2018, Bank of Finland.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Lahcen Bounader, 2018. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality," Globalization Institute Working Papers 336, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality," Dynare Working Papers 67, CEPREMAP.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Lahcen Bounader, 2019. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Bounded Rationality," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.07, Bank of Israel.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Lahcen Bounader, 2019. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality," IMF Working Papers 2019/166, International Monetary Fund.
- Wu, Shue-Jen, 2023. "The role of the past long-run oil price changes in stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 274-291.
- Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020.
"On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2018. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Working Papers 1821, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-01890770, HAL.
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2019. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403259, HAL.
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2019. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Working Papers hal-03403259, HAL.
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7t8isspkbs8, Sciences Po.
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Post-Print halshs-01890770, HAL.
- Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2019. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts : a comparison with five categories of field expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li, 2023. "Stock return predictability and cyclical movements in valuation ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-53.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014.
"Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2022.
"The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Nonbeauty Contest,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2125-2148, October.
- Thomas Lustenberger & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2017. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest," Working Papers 2017-17, Swiss National Bank.
- Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2018. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest," Working papers 2018/05, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
More about this item
Keywords
behavioral bias; forecasting; out-of-sample prediction; rational expectations; survey data;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.