IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/96-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation

Author

Listed:
  • Volker W. Wieland

Abstract

Research on learning-by-doing has typically been restricted to cases where estimation and control can be treated separately. Recent work has provided convergence results for more general learning problems where experimentation is an important aspect of optimal control. However the associated optimal policy cannot be derived analytically because Bayesian learning introduces a nonlinearity in the dynamic programming problem. This paper characterizes the optimal policy numerically and shows that it incorporates a substantial degree of experimentation. Dynamic simulations indicate that optimal experimentation dramatically improves the speed of learning, while separating control and estimation frequently induces a long-lasting bias in the control and target variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker W. Wieland, 1996. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1996/199605/199605abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1996/199605/199605pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris & Bruno Jullien, 1991. "Optimal Learning by Experimentation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 621-654.
    2. Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1996. "Learning by Doing and the Choice of Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1299-1310, November.
    3. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December.
    4. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "A two-armed bandit theory of market pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-202, October.
    5. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1993. "Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 169-183, August.
    6. Kendrick, David, 1978. "Non-convexities from probing in adaptive control problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 347-351.
    7. Rustichini, Aldo & Wolinsky, Asher, 1995. "Learning about variable demand in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1283-1292.
    8. Alfred L. Norman & M. R. Norman & Carl Palash, 1979. "Multiple relative maxima in optimal macroeconomic policy: an illustration," Special Studies Papers 134, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1993. "Bayesian economists ... Bayesian agents : An alternative approach to optimal learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 355-383, May.
    10. John B. Taylor, 1976. "Methods of Efficient Parameter Estimation in Control Problems," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 3, pages 339-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "The Ignorant Monopolist: Optimal Learning with Endogenous Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 565-581, August.
    12. Kendrick, David, 1982. "Caution and probing in a macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 149-170, November.
    13. McLennan, Andrew, 1984. "Price dispersion and incomplete learning in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 331-347, September.
    14. Balvers, Ronald J. & Cosimano, Thomas F., 1993. "Periodic learning about a hidden state variable," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 805-827.
    15. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 1994. "Active learning Monte Carlo results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 119-124, January.
    16. Taylor, John B, 1974. "Asymptotic Properties of Multiperiod Control Rules in the Linear Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 472-484, June.
    17. Mizrach, Bruce, 1991. "Nonconvexities in a stochastic control problem with learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 515-538, July.
    18. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, April.
    19. Alfred L. Norman, 1976. "First Order Dual Control," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 3, pages 311-321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1989. "A value function arising in the economics of information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-223, April.
    21. Volker Wieland, 2005. "A Numerical Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Optimal Learning Problems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 193, Society for Computational Economics.
    22. Tucci, Marco P., 1997. "Adaptive control in the presence of time-varying parameters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-47, November.
    23. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1990. "Actively Learning about Demand and the Dynamics of Price Adjustment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 882-898, September.
    24. Amman, Hans M & Kendrick, David A, 1995. "Nonconvexities in Stochastic Control Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 455-475, May.
    25. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Controlling a Stochastic Process with Unknown Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1045-1064, September.
    26. Ronald J. Balvers & Thomas F. Cosimano, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 721-738.
    27. Prescott, Edward C, 1972. "The Multi-Period Control Problem Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1043-1058, November.
    28. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Nyarko, Yaw, 1989. "Optimal Control of an Unknown Linear Process with Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 571-586, August.
    29. Anderson, T W & Taylor, John B, 1976. "Some Experimental Results on the Statistical Properties of Least Squares Estimates in Control Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1289-1302, November.
    30. Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1994. "The Bayesian Foundations of Learning by Doing," Working Papers 94-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August.
    2. Kendrick, David A., 2005. "Stochastic control for economic models: past, present and the paths ahead," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-30, January.
    3. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
    4. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman & M.P. Tucci, 2008. "Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 08-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Volker Wieland, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. repec:use:tkiwps:2020 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cosimano, Thomas F., 2008. "Optimal experimentation and the perturbation method in the neighborhood of the augmented linear regulator problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1857-1894, June.
    8. H.M. Amman & D.A. Kendrick, 2012. "Conjectures on the policy function in the presence of optimal experimentation," Working Papers 12-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
    9. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A. & Tucci, Marco P., 2020. "Approximating The Value Function For Optimal Experimentation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1073-1086, July.
    10. Tim Willems, 2017. "Actively Learning by Pricing: A Model of an Experimenting Seller," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 2216-2239, September.
    11. Koulovatianos, Christos & Mirman, Leonard J. & Santugini, Marc, 2009. "Optimal growth and uncertainty: Learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 280-295, January.
    12. Christos Koulovatianos & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2006. "Investment in a Monopoly with Bayesian Learning," Vienna Economics Papers 0603, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    13. Mason, Robin & Välimäki, Juuso, 2011. "Learning about the arrival of sales," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1699-1711, July.
    14. Hans M. Amman & Marco Paolo Tucci, 2018. "How active is active learning: value function method vs an approximation method," Department of Economics University of Siena 788, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Bergemann, Dirk & Valimaki, Juuso, 2002. "Entry and Vertical Differentiation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 91-125, September.
    16. David Kendrick & Hans Amman, 2006. "A Classification System for Economic Stochastic Control Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 453-481, June.
    17. Arnoud V. den Boer & Bert Zwart, 2014. "Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 770-783, March.
    18. Christos Koulovatianos & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2006. "Investment in a Monopoly with Bayesian Learning," Vienna Economics Papers vie0603, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    19. Leonard J. Mirman & Kevin Reffett & Marc Santugini, 2016. "On learning and growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(4), pages 641-684, April.
    20. Bond, Craig A., 2008. "On the Potential Use of Adaptive Control Methods for Improving Adaptive Natural Resource Management," Working Papers 108721, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    21. Hans M. Amman & Marco P. Tucci, 2020. "How Active is Active Learning: Value Function Method Versus an Approximation Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 675-693, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employees; Training of;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.