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Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates

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  • Miguel Ampudia
  • Skander J. van den Heuvel

Abstract

Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or even negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts announced by the ECB on European bank equity values ? an effect that is normally positive ? has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. Since then, a further unexpected cut of 25 basis points in the short-term policy rate lowered banks' stock prices by about 2% on average, compared to a 1% increase in normal times. In the cross section, this 'reversal' was far more pronounced for banks with a more traditional, deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that the reversal as well as its cross-sectional pattern can be explained by the zero lower bound on interest rates on retail deposits.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ampudia & Skander J. van den Heuvel, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-64
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.064
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank profitability; Interest rate risk; Monetary policy; Negative interest rates; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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