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Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data

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  • John G. Fernald
  • Eric Hsu
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

How reliable are China?s GDP and other data? We address this question by using trading-partner exports to China as an independent measure of its economic activity from 2000-2014. We find that the information content of Chinese GDP improves markedly after 2008. We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample uses four indicators: electricity, rail freight, an index of raw materials supply, and retail sales. Adding GDP to this group only modestly improves in-sample performance. Moreover, out of sample, a single activity factor without GDP proves the most reliable measure of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Eric Hsu & Mark M. Spiegel, 2015. "Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Working Paper Series 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2015-12
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2015-12
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    1. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Miao Liu, 2016. "Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 113-144, July.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    4. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Tai, Andrew, 2017. "Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 353-370.
    2. Harry X. WU & Zhan LI, 2021. "Reassessing China's GDP Growth Performance: an Exploration of The Underestimated Price Effect," Discussion papers 21018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. John G. Fernald & Eric Hsu & Mark M. Spiegel, 2014. "Has China’s economy become more “standard”?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Peng Bin, 2016. "Dynamic Development of Regional Disparity in Mainland China: An Experimental Study Based on a Multidimensional Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-28, December.
    6. Wei Chen & Xilu Chen & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Song, 2019. "A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 25754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Clark, Hunter & Pinkovskiy, Maxim & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 2020. "China's GDP growth may be understated," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2017 - Weltwirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung [World Economy Winter 2017 - World economic upswing continues]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    10. Liu, Ping & James Hueng, C., 2017. "Measuring real business condition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 261-274.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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