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The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility

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  • F. Owen Irvine
  • Scott Schuh

Abstract

Most of the reduction in GDP volatility since the 1983 is accounted for by a decline in comovement of output among industries that hold inventories. This decline is not simply a passive byproduct of reduced volatility in common factors or shocks. Instead, structural changes occurred in the long-run and dynamic relationships among industries? sales and inventory investment behavior?especially in the automobile and related industries, which are linked by supply and distribution chains featuring new production and inventory management techniques. Using a HAVAR model (Fratantoni and Schuh 2003) with only two sectors, manufacturing and trade, we discover structural changes that reduced comovement of sales and inventory investment both within and between industries. As a result, the response of aggregate output to all types of shocks is dampened. Structural changes accounted for more than 80 percent of the reduction in output volatility, thus weakening the case for ?good luck,? and altered industries? responses to federal funds rate shocks, thus suggesting the case for ?better monetary policy? is complicated by changes in the real side of the economy.

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  • F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:05-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook, 2010. "Declining output growth volatility: A sectoral decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 151-153, March.
    2. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    3. Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2013. "Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 445-464.
    4. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    5. F. Owen Irvine, 2004. "Sales persistence and the reductions in GDP volatility," Working Papers 05-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Bivin, David G., 2006. "Industry evidence of enhanced production stability since 1984," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 438-448, September.
    7. Miles Parker, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm-Level Volatility in the UK," Discussion Papers 16, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    8. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    9. Bivin, David G., 2008. "Production stability in a supply-chain environment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 265-275, July.
    10. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, June.
    11. Herrera, Ana Mari­a & Murtazashvili, Irina & Pesavento, Elena, 2008. "The comovement in inventories and in sales: Higher and higher," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 155-158, April.
    12. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    13. Manjola Tase, 2013. "Sectoral allocation, risk efficiency and the Great Moderation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-73, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.

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    Keywords

    Gross domestic product; Monetary policy; Inventories;
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