IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2013.54.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Roberta Distante

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Ivan Petrella

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Birkbeck, University of London)

  • Emiliano Santoro

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Catholic University of Milan and Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

The cross-sectional dynamics of the U.S. business cycle is examined through the lens of quantile regression models. Conditioning the quantiles of firm-level growth to different measures of technological change highlights a deep connection between counter-cyclical skewness and the transmission of aggregate disturbances. Asymmetry reversals emerge as the dominant source of cyclical variation in the probability density, generating a powerful amplification of aggregate shocks to firm technology. Designing and validating heterogeneous firm business cycle models should necessarily account for this empirical finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Distante & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2013.54, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.54
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2013-054.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
    3. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    6. Luís M B Cabral & José Mata, 2003. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1075-1090, September.
    7. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    9. Khan, Aubhik & Thomas, Julia K., 2003. "Nonconvex factor adjustments in equilibrium business cycle models: do nonlinearities matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 331-360, March.
    10. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 259-287, April.
    11. Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "Aggregate fluctuations and the cross-sectional dynamics of firm growth," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 459-479, February.
    12. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
    13. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
    15. J. M. Samuels, 1965. "Size and The Growth of Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 105-112.
    16. repec:ran:wpaper:710-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
    18. R?diger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 2013. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-67, October.
    19. Ajit Singh & Geoffrey Whittington, 1975. "The Size and Growth of Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(1), pages 15-26.
    20. repec:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i:281:p:299-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    22. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1993. "Microeconomic Adjustment Hazards and Aggregate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 359-383.
    23. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    24. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2014. "Size, Age and the Growth of Firms: New Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Economy and Society 179223, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    25. Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 508-534, June.
    26. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    27. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2018. "Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 317-349, March.
    28. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    29. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    31. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
    32. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
    33. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    34. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1539-1555, August.
    35. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-328, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberta Distante & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2014. "Size, Age and the Growth of Firms: New Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Working Papers 2014.69, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. repec:wrk:wrkemf:16 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Gibrat’s law and quantile regressions: An application to firm growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 5-9.
    2. repec:wrk:wrkemf:16 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Roberta Distante & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2014. "Size, Age and the Growth of Firms: New Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Working Papers 2014.69, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    6. House, Christopher L., 2014. "Fixed costs and long-lived investments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 86-100.
    7. Blandina Oliveira & Adelino Fortunato, 2006. "Testing Gibrat's Law: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of Portuguese Manufacturing Firms," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-81.
    8. R?diger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 2013. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-67, October.
    9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    10. Ruediger Bachmann & Eduardo Engel & Ricardo Caballero, 2006. "Lumpy Investment in Dynamic General Equilibrium," 2006 Meeting Papers 775, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin, 2011. "Micro Frictions, Asset Pricing and Aggregate," FMG Discussion Papers dp673, Financial Markets Group.
    12. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, "undated". "Does Lumpy Investment Matter for Business Cycles?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2010-002, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    13. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    14. Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
    15. Stephen J. Terry, 2017. "Alternative Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Firm Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1081-1111, September.
    16. Fabio Verona, 2011. "Lumpy investment in sticky information general equilibrium," CEF.UP Working Papers 1102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Hayashi Meets Kiyotaki and Moore: A Theory of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 207-225, April.
    18. Xiaoji Lin & Jack Favilukis, 2011. "Micro Frictions, Asset Pricing, and Aggregate Implications," 2011 Meeting Papers 466, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Valderrama, Diego, 2007. "Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: A challenge for the canonical RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2957-2983, September.
    20. Marcela Eslava & John Haltiwanger & Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2010. "Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 378-391, May.
    21. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate Growth; Conditional Quantiles; Business Cycles; Asymmetry Reversals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.