IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fao/wpaper/0719.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Term Rural Demographic Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Anríquez

    (Agricultural and Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization)

Abstract

This paper studies rural demographic trends at the global level with an analysis of a specially prepared database of population age/gender/rurality tables from population censuses. The focus is to identify the main demographic differences in the evolution of rural and urban populations. Among the main findings of this study, we report that with the exception of Sub- Saharan Africa there is no rural feminization. Also, rural ageing is not observed at aggregate levels in rural regions of the developing world. Perhaps the main adverse demographic trend of rural populations is the high dependency ratios brought about by higher fertility rates. This paper also carries out a census-based cross-country net-migration study identifying the main characteristics of rural out-migration in Latin America, and searches for common threads in East Africa. This analysis shows important improvements of welfare indicators and asset accumulation in rural Latin America (promoting an upward convergence of poorer and richer areas of countries), partially explained by migration. We did not find common characteristics in rural out-migration in East Africa, but report that education is the key asset that enables out-migration from poorer rural communities in East Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Anríquez, 2007. "Long-Term Rural Demographic Trends," Working Papers 07-19, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    • Handle: RePEc:fao:wpaper:0719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah855e/ah855e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse, Mekonnen, 2003. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 87-106, January.
    2. Ansley Coale & Judith Banister, 1994. "Five decades of missing females in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 459-479, August.
    3. Lipton, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and policy," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2551-2657, Elsevier.
    4. Das Gupta, Monica & Li Shuzhuo, 1999. "Gender bias in China, the Republic of Korea, and India 1920-90 - effects of war, famine, and fertility decline," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2140, The World Bank.
    5. S. Sudha & S. Irudaya Rajan, 1998. "Intensifying masculinity of sex ratios in India: New evidence 1981-1991," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 288, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    6. Stein Holden & Bekele Shiferaw & John Pender, 2001. "Market Imperfections and Land Productivity in the Ethiopian Highlands," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 53-70, September.
    7. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Jayne, Thomas S. & Weber, Michael T. & Chapoto, Antony & Mazhangara, Edward & Bailey, Linda & Yoo, Kyeongwon & Yamano, Takashi & Mghenyi, Elliot W., 2004. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Household Responses to Adult Mortality in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications For HIV/AIDS Mitigation And Rural Development Policies," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54571, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    8. Shahnawaz Malik, 1996. "Determinants of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: A Micro Study," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 171-187.
    9. Ramón López & Alberto Valdés, 2000. "Fighting Rural Poverty in Latin America: New Evidence and Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Ramón López & Alberto Valdés (ed.), Rural Poverty in Latin America, chapter 1, pages 1-31, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    11. Sen, Amartya, 1998. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
    12. Davis, Benjamin & Covarrubias, Katia & Stamoulis, Kostas G. & Winters, Paul C. & Carletto, Calogero & Quinones, Esteban & Zezza, Alberto & Di Giuseppe, Stefania, 2007. "Rural Income Generating Activities: A Cross Country Comparison," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7913, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Haddad, Lawrence & Pena, Christine, 2001. "Are women overrepresented among the poor? An analysis of poverty in 10 developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 225-269, October.
    14. Buvinic, Mayra & Gupta, Geeta Rao, 1997. "Female-Headed Households and Female-Maintained Families: Are They Worth Targeting to Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 259-280, January.
    15. André Croppenstedt, 2006. "Household Income Structure and Determinants in Rural Egypt," Working Papers 06-02, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    16. Croppenstedt, André, 2006. "Household income structure and determinants in rural Egypt," ESA Working Papers 289065, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    17. Monica Das Gupta & Li Shuzhuo, 1999. "Gender Bias in China, South Korea and India 1920–1990: Effects of War, Famine and Fertility Decline," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 619-652, July.
    18. Ravallion, Martin, 2005. "On the contribution of demographic change to aggregate poverty measures for the developing world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3580, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thapa, Ganesh & Gaiha, Raghav Gaiha, 2012. "Food Security in Asia and the Pacific: The Role of Smallholders," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mduduzi Biyase & Talent Zwane, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of Poverty And Household Welfare In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(1), pages 115-130, January-M.
    2. Klasen, Stephan & Lechtenfeld, Tobias & Povel, Felix, 2015. "A Feminization of Vulnerability? Female Headship, Poverty, and Vulnerability in Thailand and Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 36-53.
    3. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Haddad, Lawrence James & Peña, Christine, 2001. "Are women overrepresented among the poor?," FCND discussion papers 115, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Crow, Britt L., 2010. "Bare-sticks and rebellion: The drivers and implications of China’s reemerging sex imbalance," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 72-80.
    5. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Haddad, Lawrence & Pena, Christine, 2001. "Are women overrepresented among the poor? An analysis of poverty in 10 developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 225-269, October.
    6. Thomas, Anne-Claire & Gaspart, Frédéric, 2015. "Does Poverty Trap Rural Malagasy Households?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 490-505.
    7. van de Walle, Dominique, 2011. "Lasting welfare effects of widowhood in a poor country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5734, The World Bank.
    8. Lídia Farré, 2013. "The Role of Men in the Economic and Social Development of Women: Implications for Gender Equality," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 22-51, February.
    9. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2012. "The Public Economics of Increasing Longevity," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 200(1), pages 41-74, March.
    10. Oginni, Ayodeji & Ahonsi, Babatunde & Ukwuije, Francis, 2013. "Are female-headed households typically poorer than male-headed households in Nigeria?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 132-137.
    11. Medeiros, Marcelo & Costa, Joana, 2008. "Is There a Feminization of Poverty in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 115-127, January.
    12. Olga Shemyakina, 2013. "Patterns in Female Age at First Marriage and Tajik Armed Conflict [Les évolutions de l’âge des femmes au premier mariage et le conflit armé Tadjike]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 303-343, August.
    13. Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2016. "Longevity Variations And The Welfare State," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 207-239, June.
    14. Gaurav Datt & Cun Liu & Russell Smyth, 2022. "Missing Women in China and India over Seven Decades: An Analysis of Birth and Mortality Data from 1950 to 2020," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(9), pages 1807-1830, September.
    15. Olga Shemyakina, 2009. "The Marriage Market and Tajik Armed Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 66, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Sharma, Amarendra & Frijters, Paul, 2009. "Groom price-female human capital: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 270-279, March.
    17. Joshi, Shareen, 2004. "Female Household-Headship in Rural Bangladesh: Incidence, Determinants and Impact on Children's Schooling," Center Discussion Papers 28424, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    18. Flatø, Martin & Muttarak, Raya & Pelser, André, 2017. "Women, Weather, and Woes: The Triangular Dynamics of Female-Headed Households, Economic Vulnerability, and Climate Variability in South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 41-62.
    19. Prosper F. Bangwayo‐Skeete & Mintewab Bezabih & Precious Zikhali, 2012. "Crop biodiversity, productivity and production risk: Panel data micro‐evidence from Ethiopia," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 263-273, November.
    20. Michael Rogan, 2012. "Poverty and headship in post-apartheid South Africa, 1997-2008," Working Papers 288, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rural feminization; ageing; dependency; rural migration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fao:wpaper:0719. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gustavo Anríquez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/faoooit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.