IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/exs/wpaper/19-046.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Industrial Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Machine Learning with Insights from Nightlight Satellite Images

Author

Listed:
  • Christian S. Otchia

    (Hyogo, Japan)

  • Simplice A. Asongu

    (Yaoundé, Cameroon)

Abstract

This study uses nightlight time data and machine learning techniques to predict industrial development in Africa. The results provide the first evidence on how machine learning techniques and nightlight data can be used to predict economic development in places where subnational data are missing or not precise. Taken together, the research confirms four groups of important determinants of industrial growth: natural resources, agriculture growth, institutions, and manufacturing imports. Our findings indicate that Africa should follow a more multisector approach for development, putting natural resources and agriculture productivity growth at the forefront.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian S. Otchia & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Industrial Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Machine Learning with Insights from Nightlight Satellite Images," Working Papers 19/046, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    • Handle: RePEc:exs:wpaper:19/046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publications.excas.org/RePEc/exs/exs-wpaper/Industrial-Growth-in-SSA-Evidence-from-Machine-Learning.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "Ethnic Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 428-488.
    3. Nils B Weidmann & Sebastian Schutte, 2017. "Using night light emissions for the prediction of local wealth," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(2), pages 125-140, March.
    4. J. Paul Dunne & Nicholas Masiyandima, 2017. "Bilateral FDI from South Africa and Income Convergence in SADC," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 403-415, September.
    5. Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Erreygers, Guido & Cassimon, Danny, 2019. "Inequality, ICT and financial access in Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 169-184.
    6. Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2014. "Africa's statistical tragedy: best statistics, best government effectiveness," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 171-178, July.
    7. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    8. Margaret S. McMillan & Kenneth Harttgen, 2014. "What is driving the 'African Growth Miracle'?," NBER Working Papers 20077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Margaret McMillan & Kenneth Harttgen, 2014. "Working Paper - 209 - What is driving the African Growth Miracle," Working Paper Series 2145, African Development Bank.
    10. Khoula Maryam & Zainab Jehan, 2018. "Total Factor Productivity Convergence in Developing Countries: Role of Technology Diffusion," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 247-262, June.
    11. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen, 1999. "When Economic Reform is Faster Then Statistical Reform: Measuring and Explaining Income Inequality in Rural China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(1), pages 33-56, February.
    12. Zorobabel Bicabaa & Zuzana Brixiová & Mthuli Ncube, 2017. "Can Extreme Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa be Eliminated by 2030?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(2), pages 93-110.
    13. Joseph Stiglitz, 2018. "From manufacturing-led export growth to a twenty-first-century inclusive growth strategy: Explaining the demise of a successful growth model and what to do about it," WIDER Working Paper Series 176, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Charlotta Mellander & José Lobo & Kevin Stolarick & Zara Matheson, 2015. "Night-Time Light Data: A Good Proxy Measure for Economic Activity?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Carl Friedrich Kreuser & Carol Newman, 2018. "Total Factor Productivity in South African Manufacturing Firms," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 40-78, January.
    16. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    17. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    18. Clemens Lutz & Matthias Olthaar, 2017. "Global value chains and smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 251-254, July.
    19. Ehouman Williams V. Ahouakan & M'Baye Diene, 2017. "Does School Quality Matter? Primary Schools Characteristics and Child Labour Intensity in Senegal," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(1), pages 113-131.
    20. Matthias Olthaar & Florian Noseleit, 2017. "Deploying strategic resources: comparing members of farmer cooperatives to non-members in sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 339-370, July.
    21. Anne van Lakerveld & Rob van Tulder, 2017. "Managing the transition to sustainable supply chain management practices: Evidence from Dutch leader firms in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 255-279, July.
    22. Clemens Lutz & Getaw Tadesse, 2017. "African farmers’ market organizations and global value chains: competitiveness versus inclusiveness," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 318-338, July.
    23. Johannes W. Fedderke & Daniel K. Mengisteab, 2017. "Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(2), pages 161-177, June.
    24. Päivi Lujala & Jan Ketil Rod & Nadja Thieme, 2007. "Fighting over Oil: Introducing a New Dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(3), pages 239-256, July.
    25. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "From manufacturing-led export growth to a twenty-first-century inclusive growth strategy: Explaining the demise of a successful growth model and what to do about it," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-176, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    26. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    27. Juliet U. Elu & Gregory N. Price, 2017. "Science Labor Supply in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is There a Gender Disparity in Preferences?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 367-375, September.
    28. Anja Shortland & Katerina Christopoulou & Charalampos Makatsoris, 2013. "War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(5), pages 545-561, September.
    29. Jacob A. L. Vermeire & Garry D. Bruton & Li Cai, 2017. "Global value chains in Africa and development of opportunities by poor landholders," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 280-295, July.
    30. Kuhn, Patrick M. & Weidmann, Nils B., 2015. "Unequal We Fight: Between- and Within-Group Inequality and Ethnic Civil War," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 543-568, September.
    31. Keola, Souknilanh & Andersson, Magnus & Hall, Ola, 2015. "Monitoring Economic Development from Space: Using Nighttime Light and Land Cover Data to Measure Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 322-334.
    32. Alle Metzlar, 2017. "Strategic intent and the strategic position of smallholders: a case study of a smallholders’ organization in the Ghanaian cocoa industry," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 371-387, July.
    33. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2018. "Adoption of improved crop varieties by involving farmers in the e-wallet program in Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 18/062, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    34. Roland Hodler & Paul A. Raschky, 2014. "Regional Favoritism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 995-1033.
    35. Fatou Cisse, 2017. "Do Firms Learn by Exporting or Learn to Export? Evidence from Senegalese Manufacturing Firms," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(1), pages 133-160.
    36. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2018. "Adoption of improved crop varieties by involving farmers in the e-wallet program in Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 18/063, African Governance and Development Institute..
    37. Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Charles Ackah & Mark Edem Kunawotor, 2018. "Financial Access and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 210-226, April.
    38. Otchia, Christian S., 2015. "Mining-based growth and productive transformation in the Democratic Republic of Congo: What can an African lion learn from an Asian tiger?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 227-238.
    39. Ruerd Ruben & Alemayehu Dekeba Bekele & Birhanu Megersa Lenjiso, 2017. "Quality upgrading in Ethiopian dairy value chains: dovetailing upstream and downstream perspectives," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 296-317, July.
    40. Dave Donaldson & Adam Storeygard, 2016. "The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 171-198, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kouakou Jean Fidele SIÉ, 2023. "Industrial policy and labour productivity growth in Africa: does the technology choice matter?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Uchenna Efobi & Belmondo V. Tanankem & Evans S. Osabuohien, 2019. "Globalisation and Female Economic Participation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers of The Association for Promoting Women in Research and Development in Africa (ASPROWORDA). 19/005, The Association for Promoting Women in Research and Development in Africa (ASPROWORDA).
    3. Stein, Merlin, 2021. "Re-evaluating RCTs with nightlights - An example from biometric smartcards in India," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 152, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    4. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Bhaskar, Ratikant & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2023. "Artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data in natural resources management: A comprehensive bibliometric review of literature spanning 1975–2022," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Remittances and value added across economic sub-sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 23-41, February.
    2. Asongu, Simplice A. & Rahman, Mushfiqur & Nnanna, Joseph & Haffar, Mohamed, 2020. "Enhancing information technology for value added across economic sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Simplice A. Asongu & Mushfiqur Rahman & Joseph Nnanna & Mohamed Haffar, 2020. "Enhancing Information Technology for Value Added Across Economic Sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/064, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Financial Access and Value Added in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence from the Agricultural, Manufacturing and Service Sectors," Working Papers 22/009, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    5. Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Financial Access and Productivity Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 1029-1041, September.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2020. "Enhancing ICT for productivity in sub-Saharan Africa: Thresholds for complementary policies," African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 831-845, November.
    7. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2020. "On the simultaneous openness hypothesis: FDI, trade and TFP dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Simplice Asongu & Christelle Meniago & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2022. "The role of value added across economic sectors in modulating the effects of FDI on TFP and economic growth dynamics," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(11), pages 5087-5108, February.
    9. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2023. "Foreign Direct Investment, Information Technology, And Total Factor Productivity Dynamics In Sub‐Saharan Africa," World Affairs, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 186(2), pages 469-506, June.
    10. Felix A. Nandonde & Richard Adu-Gyamfi & Tinaye S. Mmusi & Herbert Wamalwa & Simplice A. Asongu & Johannes P. Opperman & Jeremiah R. Makindara, 2019. "Linkages and spillover effects of South African foreign direct investment in Botswana and Kenya," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/039, African Governance and Development Institute..
    11. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2021. "The Openness Hypothesis in the Context of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Moderating Role of Trade Dynamics on FDI," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 336-359, July.
    12. Asongu, Simplice A. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "Foreign direct investment, information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    13. Simplice Asongu & Rexon Nting, 2020. "The comparative economics of financial access in gender economic inclusion," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 193-207, December.
    14. Dickinson, Jeffrey, 2020. "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles: What Drives Human-Made Light?," MPRA Paper 103504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lessmann, Christian & Seidel, André, 2017. "Regional inequality, convergence, and its determinants – A view from outer space," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 110-132.
    16. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2020. "Inclusive Education for Inclusive Economic Participation: the Financial Access Channel," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/019, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    17. Simplice Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2023. "Enhancing ICT for female economic participation in sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 195-223, May.
    18. Juan Jose Miranda & Oscar A. Ishizawa & Hongrui Zhang, 2020. "Understanding the Impact Dynamics of Windstorms on Short-Term Economic Activity from Night Lights in Central America," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 657-698, October.
    19. Kammerlander, Andreas & Schulze, Günther G., 2023. "Local economic growth and infant mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    20. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "How enhancing information and communication technology has affected inequality in Africa for sustainable development: An empirical investigation," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 647-656, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial growth; Machine learning; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:exs:wpaper:19/046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anutechia Asongu Simplice (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://excas.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.