IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/ecopap/0424.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandr Hobza
  • Gilles Mourre

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsAn essential part of the Europe 2020 strategy consists of reforms with a medium- to long-term horizon that focus on promoting the sustainability of public finances and enhancing potential growth. Building on structural reform simulations with the DSGE model QUEST III, this paper presents several stylised scenarios combining fiscal consolidation efforts with differentiated progress in implementing structural reforms to explore the possible extent of gains from such reforms. The results confirm that if the EU succeeds in generating necessary reform momentum, GDP could increase by up to 7% by 2020. The extent of the benefits will crucially depend on the depth and breadth of undertaken reforms, however..

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandr Hobza & Gilles Mourre, 2010. "Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenarios," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 424, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0424
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp424_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "The Regulation of Entry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37.
    2. Gilles Mourre, 2006. "Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the euro area in the late 1990s?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1783-1807.
    3. Rebekka Christopoulou & Philip Vermeulen, 2012. "Markups in the Euro area and the US over the period 1981–2004: a comparison of 50 sectors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 53-77, February.
    4. Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan In't Veld, 2009. "Modelling the Lisbon Strategy: Analysing Policies to Promote Knowledge Investment with an Endogenous Growth Model," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 520-539, December.
    6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    7. Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2011. "A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 647-663.
    8. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    9. Harald Badinger, 2007. "Has the EU's Single Market Programme Fostered Competition? Testing for a Decrease in Mark‐up Ratios in EU Industries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 497-519, August.
    10. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 282, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
    13. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    14. Andrea Conte & Ariane Labat & Janos Varga & Ziga Zarnic, 2010. "What is the growth potential of green innovation? An assessment of EU climate policy options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 413, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Mr. Luc Everaert & Mr. Werner Schule, 2006. "Structural Reforms in the Euro Area: Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries," IMF Working Papers 2006/137, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "How to close the productivity gap between the US and Europe: A quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenous growth model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 399, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Lusine Lusinyan & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2013. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy," IMF Working Papers 2013/022, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Michał Bernard Pietrzak & Adam P. Balcerzak, 2016. "Quality of Institutions and Total Factor Productivity in the European Union," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 17(3), pages 497-514, September.
    3. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Short-term pain for long-term gain: Market deregulation and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 358-385.
    4. Theodore Katsanevas, 2016. "The debt trap of the Greek economy and the way out," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 19-35.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/205, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/114, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    8. Małgorzata K. Guzowska & Barbara Kryk & Dorota Michalak & Paulina Szyja, 2021. "R&D Spending in the Energy Sector and Achieving the Goal of Climate Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-25, November.
    9. Miss Anna R Bordon & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Kazuko Shirono, 2016. "When Do Structural Reforms Work? On the Role of the Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policies," IMF Working Papers 2016/062, International Monetary Fund.
    10. FRANCESCO FELICI & Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio, 2012. "Structural Reforms and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," EcoMod2012 5073, EcoMod.
    11. Balcerzak Adam P. & Pietrzak Michał Bernard, 2016. "Quality of Institutions and Total Factor Productivity in the European Union," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 17(3), pages 497-514, September.
    12. Fritz Breuss, 2013. "Towards a New EMU," WIFO Working Papers 447, WIFO.
    13. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
    14. Magdalena Radulescu & Aleksandra Fedajev & Crenguta Ileana Sinisi & Constanta Popescu & Silvia Elena Iacob, 2018. "Europe 2020 Implementation as Driver of Economic Performance and Competitiveness. Panel Analysis of CEE Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, "undated". "The Macroeconomics of Europe 2020 Reform Strategy and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," Working Papers 8, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    16. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2015. "The interaction between the labour tax wedge and structural reforms in Italy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 185-223.
    17. Fritz Breuss, 2013. "Europa als Global Player," WIFO Working Papers 455, WIFO.
    18. M. Isabel Landaluce-Calvo & Mariola Gozalo-Delgado, 2021. "Proposal for a Dynamic Composite Indicator: Application in a Comparative Analysis of Trends in the EU Member States Towards the Europe 2020 Strategy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 1031-1053, April.
    19. Barbara Kryk & Małgorzata Klaudia Guzowska, 2021. "Implementation of Climate/Energy Targets of the Europe 2020 Strategy by the EU Member States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, May.
    20. Martina Basarac Sertic & Anita Ceh Casni & Valentina Vuckovic, 2015. "Impact of labour market reforms on economic activity in European Union: short term costs and long term benefits," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 83-107.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
    2. FRANCESCO FELICI & Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio, 2012. "Structural Reforms and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," EcoMod2012 5073, EcoMod.
    3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, "undated". "The Macroeconomics of Europe 2020 Reform Strategy and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," Working Papers 8, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    4. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    6. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "How to close the productivity gap between the US and Europe: A quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenous growth model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 399, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Janos Varga & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2014. "Growth effects of structural reforms in Southern Europe: the case of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 323-363, May.
    9. Jocelyn Boussard & Benoît Campagne, 2017. "Fiscal policy coordination in a monetary union at the zero lower bound," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 65-90.
    10. Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2011. "A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 647-663.
    11. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    12. Annabelle Mourougane & Lukas Vogel, 2009. "Speed of Adjustment to Selected Labour Market and Tax Reforms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 500-519, December.
    13. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    14. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, "undated". "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    15. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan In't Veld, 2009. "Modelling the Lisbon Strategy: Analysing Policies to Promote Knowledge Investment with an Endogenous Growth Model," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 520-539, December.
    16. Barbara Annichiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2016. "IGEM II: a New Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    17. repec:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2017_num_494_1_10782 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Halmai, Péter, 2015. "Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója és válsága [Erosion and crisis in European growth potential]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 379-414.
    19. Fabio DI DIO & Barbara ANNICCHIARICO & Francesco FELICI & Francesco NUCCI, 2010. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy Implications: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and QUEST," EcoMod2010 259600045, EcoMod.
    20. repec:ecb:ecbops:2014165 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Dieppe, Alistair & Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Marchiori, Luca & Grech, Owen & Albani, Maria & Lalouette, Laure & Kulikov, Dmitry & Papadopoulou, Niki & Sideris, Dimitris & Irac, Delphine & Gordo Mora, , 2015. "Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth," Occasional Paper Series 165, European Central Bank.
    22. Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2014. "The potential growth impact of structural reforms in the EU. A benchmarking exercise," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 541, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hobza Mourre structural reform Europe 2020 2020 QUEST III growth employment;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECFIN INFO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dg2ecbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.