IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp442.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons

Author

Listed:
  • Gerlach, Petra
  • McCauley, Robert N.
  • Ueda, Kazuo

Abstract

This paper shows that the Japanese foreign exchange interventions in 2003/04 seem to have lowered long-term interest rates in a wide range of countries, including Japan. It seems that this decline was triggered by the investment of the intervention proceeds in US bonds and that a global portfolio balance effect spread the resulting decline in US yields to other bond markets, thus easing global monetary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Petra & McCauley, Robert N. & Ueda, Kazuo, 2012. "Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons," Papers WP442, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp442
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP442.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    2. Takatoshi Ito, 2003. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? The Japanese experiences in the 1990s," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Petra Gerlach & Robert N McCauley & Kazuo Ueda, 2011. "Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese and Swiss lessons, 2003-2004 and 2009-2010," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-830, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March.
    5. Robert McCauley & Guorong Jiang, 2004. "Diversifying with Asian local currency bonds," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    8. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, April.
    9. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy in Japan, 2003-2004," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-93, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy in Japan, 2003-04," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-05, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
    11. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    12. Jaime Caruana, 2012. "Luncheon address: policymaking in an interconnected world," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 313-324.
    13. Serge Jeanneau & Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Domestic bond markets in Latin America: achievements and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    14. Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "Interventions and Japanese economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 219-239, November.
    15. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    16. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
    17. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    18. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    19. Robert N McCauley & Jean-François Rigaudy, 2011. "Managing foreign exchange reserves in the crisis and after," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 19-47, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 2, pages 16-84, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
    22. Watanabe, Tsutomu & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013. "The great intervention and massive money injection: The Japanese experience 2003–2004," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 428-443.
    23. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 58.
    24. Paul Mizen (ed.), 2003. "Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2818.
    25. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2005. "Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy in Japan, 2003–04," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 241-260, November.
    27. Robert McCauley, 2005. "Distinguishing global dollar reserves from official holdings in the United States," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    28. repec:boj:bojron:04-e-0730 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. C. Fred Bergsten & John Williamson (ed.), 2004. "Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr17, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Соломія Бричка & Денис Клиновський & Дмитро Круковець & Артем Огарков, 2019. "Мета-аналіз: ефект fx-інтервенцій на валютний курс," Suchasni ekonomichni doslidzhennja, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-47.
    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Yetman, James, 2020. "Accumulation of foreign currency reserves and risk-taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. McCauley, Robert, 2013. "Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 145-154.
    4. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2017. "A stopping time approach to assessing the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention: An application to Japanese data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 32-46.
    5. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2020. "The CAPM, National Stock Market Betas, and Macroeconomic Covariates: a Global Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 787-820, September.
    6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit," Working Papers 152013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Solomiia Brychka & Denys Klynovskyi & Dmytro Krukovets & Artem Oharkov, 2019. "Meta-Analysis: Meta-Analysis: Effect of FX interventions on the exchange rate," Modern Economic Studies, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-44.
    10. Rasmus Fatum & James Yetman, 2018. "Does the accumulation of foreign currency reserves affect risk-taking? An event study approach," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 41-52, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    2. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
    3. Petra Gerlach & Robert N McCauley & Kazuo Ueda, 2011. "Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese and Swiss lessons, 2003-2004 and 2009-2010," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-830, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2010. "Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: Self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 570-584, April.
    5. Watanabe, Tsutomu & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013. "The great intervention and massive money injection: The Japanese experience 2003–2004," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 428-443.
    6. Pontines, Victor, 2018. "Self-selection and treatment effects: Revisiting the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 299-316.
    7. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    9. Ronald McDonald & Xuxin Mao, 2016. "Japan's Currency Intervention Regimes: A Microstructural Analysis with Speculation and Sentiment," Working Papers 2016_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kaoru Hosono & Shogo Isobe, 2014. "The Financial Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies in the U.S., the U.K., the Eurozone, and Japan," Discussion papers ron259, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    12. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    13. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    15. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    16. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2020. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    17. McCauley, Robert, 2013. "Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 145-154.
    18. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
    19. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2009. "Announcements, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 367-394, December.
    20. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange/investment/US;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Burns (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.