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Combining microsimulation and optimization to identify optimal flexible tax-transfer rules

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  • Colombino, Ugo
  • Islam, Nizamul

Abstract

We use a behavioural microsimulation model embedded in a numerical optimization procedure in order to identify optimal (social welfare maximizing) tax-transfer rules. We consider the class of tax-transfer rules consisting of a universal basic income and a tax defined by a 4th degree polynomial. The rule is applied to total taxable household income. A microeconometric model of household, which simulates household labour supply decisions, is embedded into a numerical routine in order to identify – within the class defined above – the tax-transfer rule that maximizes a social welfare function. We present the results for five European countries: France, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and United Kingdom. For most values of the inequality aversion parameter, the optimized rules provide a higher social welfare than the current rule, with the exception of Luxembourg. In France, Italy and Luxembourg the optimized rules are significantly different from the current ones and are close to a Negative Income Tax or a Universal basic income with a flat tax rate. In Spain and the UK, the optimized rules are instead close to the current rule. With the exception of Spain, the optimal rules are slightly disequalizing and the social welfare gains are due to efficiency gains. Nonetheless, the poverty gap index tends to be lower under the optimized regime.

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  • Colombino, Ugo & Islam, Nizamul, 2020. "Combining microsimulation and optimization to identify optimal flexible tax-transfer rules," EUROMOD Working Papers EM13/20, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:emodwp:em13-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Figari, Francesco & Colombino, Ugo & Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Locatelli, Marilena, 2014. "Shifting taxes from labour to property. A simulation under labour market equilibrium," EUROMOD Working Papers EM20/14, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Ugo Colombino, 2015. "Five Crossroads on the Way to Basic Income. An Italian Tour," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(3), pages 353-389, November.
    3. Jonathan Heathcote & Hitoshi Tsujiyama, 2021. "Optimal Income Taxation: Mirrlees Meets Ramsey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 3141-3184.
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    6. Islam, Nizamul & Colombino, Ugo, 2018. "The case for NIT+FT in Europe. An empirical optimal taxation exercise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 38-69.
    7. Ugo Colombine, 2013. "A new equilibrium simulation procedure with discrete choice models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(3), pages 25-49.
    8. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2005. "Designing Optimal Taxes With a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," Public Economics 0510013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. Raj Chetty, 2009. "Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 451-488, May.
    11. Colombino Ugo & Locatelli Marilena & Narazani Edlira & O'Donoghue Cathal, 2010. "Alternative Basic Income Mechanisms: An Evaluation Exercise With a Microeconometric Model," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, September.
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    13. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Responses," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1039-1073.
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    16. Aaberge, Rolf & Flood, Lennart, 2008. "Evaluation of an In-Work Tax Credit Reform in Sweden: Effects on Labor Supply and Welfare Participation of Single Mothers," IZA Discussion Papers 3736, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    18. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2012. "Accounting for family background when designing optimal income taxes: a microeconometric simulation analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 741-761, January.
    19. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
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    22. Richard Blundell & Andrew Shephard, 2012. "Employment, Hours of Work and the Optimal Taxation of Low-Income Families," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 481-510.
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    1. Ugo Colombino & Nizamul Islam, 2021. "Global and digitalised economy, new labour demand scenarios and optimal tax-transfer reforms," CHILD Working Papers Series 90 JEL Classification: H2, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.
    2. Colombino, Ugo & Islam, Nizamul, 2020. "Optimal Tax-Transfer Rules under Equilibrium and New Labour Demand Scenarios," IZA Discussion Papers 13541, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Colombino, Ugo & Islam, Nizamul, 2022. "The "Robot Economy" and Optimal Tax-Transfer Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 15198, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Ugo Colombino & Nizamul Islam, 2022. "The “Robot Economy†and optimal tax-transfer reforms," CHILD Working Papers Series 101 JEL Classification: H, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.

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    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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