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Predicting Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets

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  • David Newbery

Abstract

The traditional measure of market power is the HHI, which gives implausible results given the low elasticity of demand in electricity spot markets, unless it is adapted to take account of contracting. In its place the Residual Supply Index has been proposed as a more suitable index to measure potential market power in electricity markets, notably in California and more recently in the EU Sector Inquiry. The paper investigates its value in identifying the ability of firms to raise prices in an electricity market with contracts and capacity constraints and find that it is most useful for the case of a single dominant supplier, or with a natural extension, for the case of a symmetric oligoply. Estimates from the Sector Inquiry seem to fit this case better than might be expected, but suggests an alternative defintion of the RSI defined over flexible output that should give a more reliable relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • David Newbery, 2009. "Predicting Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 3, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    • Handle: RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0205
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    Cited by:

    1. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Machiel Mulder, 2015. "Competition in the Dutch Electricity Market: An Empirical Analysis over 2006-2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2017. "Electricity market mergers with endogenous forward contracting," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 269-310, June.
    4. Mulder, Machiel & Schoonbeek, Lambert, 2013. "Decomposing changes in competition in the Dutch electricity market through the residual supply index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 100-107.
    5. Genc, Talat S., 2017. "OPEC and demand response to crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 238-246.
    6. Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam, 2018. "Market Power Modelling in Electricity Market: A Critical Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 347-356.
    7. Tran Dang Khoa, 2018. "Market Efficiency and Market Power in Vietnam Competitive Generation Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 181-189.
    8. Genc, Talat S., 2016. "Measuring demand responses to wholesale electricity prices using market power indices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 247-260.
    9. Poletti, Stephen, 2021. "Market Power in the New Zealand electricity wholesale market 2010–2016," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Grossi, Luigi & Heim, Sven & Waterson, Michael, 2014. "A vision of the European energy future? The impact of the German response to the Fukushima earthquake," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1047, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Vítor Marques & Adelino Fortunato & Isabel Soares, 2011. "Application of a structural model to a wholesale electricity market: The Spanish market from January 1999 to June 2007," GEMF Working Papers 2011-02, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    12. Holmberg, Pär & Tangerås, Thomas & Ahlqvist, Victor, 2018. "Central- versus Self-Dispatch in Electricity Markets," Working Paper Series 1257, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 27 Mar 2019.
    13. Hesamzadeh, M.R. & Biggar, D.R. & Bunn, D.W. & Moiseeva, E., 2020. "The impact of generator market power on the electricity hedge market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. repec:dgr:rugsom:13003-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Anderson, Edward & Holmberg, Pär, 2018. "Price instability in multi-unit auctions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 318-341.
    16. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    17. Vasin, A. & Daylova, E., 2013. "Analysis of the Short-Term Efficiency of Mechanisms of the Wholesale Electricity Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 35-60.
    18. Mariola Ndrio & Khaled Alshehri & Subhonmesh Bose, 2020. "A Scalar Parameterized Mechanism for Two-Sided Markets," Papers 2003.01206, arXiv.org.
    19. Hakam, Dzikri Firmansyah, 2019. "Mitigating the risk of market power abuse in electricity sector restructuring: Evidence from Indonesia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 181-191.
    20. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:65-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Vítor Marques & Isabel Soares & Adelino Fortunato, 2012. "Application of a Structural Model to the Spanish Electricity Wholesale Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 65-108.
    22. Grossi, Luigi & Heim, Sven & Waterson, Michael, 2017. "The impact of the German response to the Fukushima earthquake," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 450-465.
    23. Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R. & Biggar, Darryl R. & Hosseinzadeh, Nasser, 2011. "The TC-PSI indicator for forecasting the potential for market power in wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5988-5998, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy policy; electricity; electricity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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