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Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname

Author

Listed:
  • Ooft, G.
  • Bhaghoe, S.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

For many countries, statistical information on macroeconomic variables is not abundant and hence creating forecasts can be cumbersome. This paper addresses the creation of current year forecasts from a MIDAS regression for annual inflation rates where monthly inflation rates are the explanatory variables, and where the latter are only available for the last one and a half decade. The model can be viewed as a hybrid New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC). Specific focus is given to the forecast accuracy concerning the high inflation period in 2016-2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Ooft, G. & Bhaghoe, S. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2019. "Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:120337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Rational Expectations; MIDAS Regression; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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