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Long-run causality, with an application to international links between long-term interest rates

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  • C. Bruneau
  • E. Jondeau

Abstract

In this paper we give a precise definition of long‐run causality in a multivariate non‐stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long‐run if knowledge of the past of the former improves long‐run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework, we show that long‐run non‐causality can be easily tested with a Wald statistics, conditionally on the cointegration rank. The methodology is used to study long‐run causal links between US, German, and French long‐term interest rates from January 1990 to June 1997.
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Suggested Citation

  • C. Bruneau & E. Jondeau, 1997. "Long-run causality, with an application to international links between long-term interest rates," THEMA Working Papers 97-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:97-26
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yiannis Kamarianakis & Vagelis Kaslis, 2005. "Geographical competition-complementarity relationships between Greek regional economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p552, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Oxley, Les & Reale, Marco & Wilson, Granville Tunnicliffe, 2009. "Constructing structural VAR models with conditional independence graphs," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2910-2916.
    4. Kari Heimonen, 2002. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," International Finance 0209003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Al-Sadoon, M.M., 2009. "Causality Along Subspaces: Theory," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0919, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. van Tilburg, Aad & Kuiper, W. Erno & Swinkels, Rob, 2006. "Market Performance of Potato Auctions in Bhutan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25520, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Paolo Paruolo, 2006. "The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Rank of a Cointegration Submatrix," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 921-948, December.
    8. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
    9. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a substitute currency: The case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. William J. Crowder, 2020. "Does the Fed Control Trend Inflation?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 21(2), pages 241-261, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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