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The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Carletti

    (Bocconi University and CEPR)

  • Tommaso Oliviero

    (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF)

  • Marco Pagano

    (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and EIEF)

  • Loriana Pelizzon

    (SAFE, Goethe University Frankfurt and Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

  • Marti G. Subrahmanyam

    (Stern School of Business, New York University)

Abstract

This paper estimates the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 shock and the subsequent lockdown, using a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms. We find that a 3-month lockdown entails an aggregate yearly drop in profits of €170 billion, with an implied equity erosion of €117 billion for the whole sample, and €31 billion for firms that became distressed, i.e., ended up with negative book value after the shock. As a consequence of these losses, about 17% of the sample firms, whose employees account for 8.8% of total employment in the sample (about 800 thousand employees), become distressed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are affected disproportionately, with 18.1% of small firms, and 14.3% of medium-sized ones becoming distressed, against 6.4% of large firms. The equity shortfall and the extent of distress are concentrated in the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors and in the North of Italy. Since many firms predicted to become distressed due to the shock had fragile balance sheets even prior to the COVID-19 shock, restoring their equity to their pre-crisis levels may not suffice to ensure their long-term solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Carletti & Tommaso Oliviero & Marco Pagano & Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 2020. "The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy," EIEF Working Papers Series 2014, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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