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An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

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  • Casares, Miguel
  • Moreno, Antonio
  • Vázquez Pérez, Jesús

Abstract

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Casares, Miguel & Moreno, Antonio & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2012. "An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:8761
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    2. He Chen & Jun-ichi Inoue, 2013. "Statistical Mechanics of Labor Markets," Papers 1309.5156, arXiv.org.
    3. Casares, Miguel & Deidda, Luca & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2019. "Loan Production And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 101-143, January.
    4. MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi & HASUMI Ryo, 2016. "Impacts of Government Spending on Unemployment: Evidence from a Medium-scale DSGE Model(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 329, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Mina Mahmoudi & Mark Pingle, 2018. "A Growth Model with Unemployment," Papers 1806.04228, arXiv.org.
    6. He Chen & Jun-ichi Inoue, 2013. "Dynamics of probabilistic labor markets: statistical physics perspective," Papers 1309.5158, arXiv.org.
    7. Pingle, Mark & Guerrero, Federico & Mahmoudi, Mina & Wuthisatian, Rattaphon, 2023. "A Descriptive Growth Model with Unemployment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 482-500.
    8. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Casares, Miguel & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Why are labor markets in Spain and Germany so different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 320-335.
    10. Tahir Mahmood & Amjid Ali & Noureen Akhtar & Muhammad Iqbal & Sadia Qamar & Hafiz Zafar Nazir & Nasir Abbas & Iram Sana, 2014. "Determinants of Unemployment In Pakistan: A Statistical Study," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(12), pages 1163-1175, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sticky wages; unemployment; business cycles; New-Keynesian models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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