IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehu/dfaeii/6381.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa
  • Iza Padilla, María Amaya

Abstract

This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy during the 1982-2004 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in 1997-98. We show that output, output growth rate and real interest rates volatilities in Hong Kong are higher than their respective average volatilities among developed economies. In this paper, we build a stochastic neoclassical small open economy model that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous Total Factor Productivity (transitory and permanent), real interest rates shocks and financial frictions. The main findings are that the trend volatility has to be higher than the volatility of the transitory fluctuations around the trend; that the volatility of real interest rates are mainly due to country risk spread, and that financial frictions matter to explain real interest rates countercyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2011. "Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:6381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://addi.ehu.es/handle/10810/6381
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    5. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Contagion and Convergence: An Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 55-86, November.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    8. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    9. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    10. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatily, Contagion and Convergence: And Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and México," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 55-86, November.
    12. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2000/055, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    14. Dotsey, Michael & Lantz, Carl & Scholl, Brian, 2003. "The Behavior of the Real Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 91-110, February.
    15. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Mark Crosby, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 606-623, November.
    17. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2005. "World Interest Rate, Business Cycles, and Financial Intermediation in Small Open Economies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    20. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    22. P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2005. "A Toolbox for the Numerical Study of Linear Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," GE, Growth, Math methods 0501004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    24. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    26. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
    27. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2003. "Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 328-348, May.
    28. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    29. Marcelo Oviedo, 2005. "A Toolbox for the Numerical Study of Linear Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(1-2), pages 91-136, January-D.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1265-1293, November.
    3. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
    4. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    5. Paulina Etxeberria-Garaigorta & Amaia Iza, 2015. "The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 400-414, May.
    6. Jacek Rothert, 2012. "Productivity or Demand? Identifying Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economies," 2012 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Fernández Martín, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4129, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    9. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    10. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2018. "Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Economies: the Role of Subsistence Consumption," Working papers 2018rwp-127, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    11. Adam Gulan & Andres Fernandez, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies.The Role of Financial Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 849, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Álvarez-Parra, Fernando & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Toledo, Manuel, 2013. "Durable goods, financial frictions, and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 720-736.
    15. Nan Li, 2007. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: A Contractual Approach," Discussion Papers 06-026, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    17. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2018. "Business cycles, informal economy, and interest rates in emerging countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-116.
    18. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    19. C. Bora Durdu, 2013. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: Recent Advances," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 183-199, June.
    20. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:6381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alcira Macías Redondo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/f1ehues.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.