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The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates

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  • Bracke, Philippe
  • Pinchbeck, Edward W.
  • Wyatt, James

Abstract

Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing – the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership – over a 100 years and derive implied discount rates. For our empirical analysis, we compile a unique historical data set (1987–92) to abstract from the right to extend leases currently enjoyed by tenants. Across a variety of specifications and samples, we find that leasehold prices are consistent with a time declining schedule and low long-term discount rates in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bracke, Philippe & Pinchbeck, Edward W. & Wyatt, James, 2017. "The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86393
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    Cited by:

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    7. Gautier, Pieter A. & Vuuren, Aico van, 2019. "The effect of land lease on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    8. Hans R.A. Koster & Jan Rouwendal, 2024. "Housing Market Discount Rates: Evidence From Bargaining And Bidding Wars," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 955-1002, May.
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    14. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins & Alison Hill, 2019. "Climate Risk and Beliefs: Evidence from New York Floodplains," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    15. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. David Domeij & Tore Ellingsen, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in UK Housing Markets: Comment on “No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets”," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1755-1766, July.
    17. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.
    18. Nan Liu, 2021. "Market buoyancy, information transparency and pricing strategy in the Scottish housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(16), pages 3388-3406, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; leasehold; discount rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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