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Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE

Author

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  • de Grauwe, Paul
  • Ji, Yuemei
  • Macchiarelli, Corrado

Abstract

Despite the partial realignment of European long-term government bonds after the crisis in 2012, there has been some renewed divergence in yields in the last years. We analyse the sources of these divergences and find that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are highly sensitive to changing market sentiments, both in time and across countries. We analyse the implications of this finding for the QE-programme. Our analysis of the recent developments in the bond markets and in the macroeconomic developments of the euro area suggests that pulling the plug on QE too soon might undo some of the benefits of QE in the countries of the periphery and may lead to increases in the refinancing costs of member states with little or no fiscal space

Suggested Citation

  • de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2017. "Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:85127
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/85127/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU," Working Papers REM 2019/67, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.

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    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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