IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/85126.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trend growth durations & shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Grinis, Inna

Abstract

Policymakers and investors often conceptualize trend growth as simply a medium/long term average growth rate. In practice, these averages are usually taken over arbitrary periods of time, thereby ignoring the large empirical growth literature which shows that doing so is inappropriate, especially in developing countries where growth is highly unstable. This paper builds on this literature to propose an algorithm, called "iterative Fit and Filter" (iFF), that extracts the trend as a sequence of medium/long term growth averages. iFF separates important countryspecific historical episodes and trend growth durations - number of years between two consecutive trend growth shifts, vary substantially across countries and over time. We relate the conditional probabilities of up and down-shifts in trend growth next year to the country's current growth environment, level of development, demographics, institutions, economic management and external shocks, and show how both iFF and the predictive model could be employed in practice

Suggested Citation

  • Grinis, Inna, 2017. "Trend growth durations & shifts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85126, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:85126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/85126/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    4. Philippe Aghion, 2005. "Growth and Institutions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-18, March.
    5. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    6. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    9. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    10. Zezza, Alberto & Davis, Benjamin & Azzarri, Carlo & Covarrubias, Katia & Tasciotti, Luca & Anríquez, Gustavo, 2008. "The impact of rising food prices on the poor," ESA Working Papers 289027, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    11. Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 2013. "Asia-phoria meet regression to the mean," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-35.
    12. Philippe Aghion & Gilbert Cette & Elie Cohen, 2014. "Changer de modèle," Post-Print hal-01463101, HAL.
    13. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    15. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 221-250, May.
    16. Carmem Feijo & Lionello Punzo & Marcos Tostes Lamonica, 2011. "Brazil’s economy - 1971-2005: growth pattern and structural change," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    17. Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa, 2015. "Measuring Recovery: Aggregate Demand and the Slowdown of Brazilian Economic Growth from 2011-2014," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2015-19, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    18. Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa, 2015. "Aggregate demand and the slowdown of Brazilian economic growth in 2011-2014 [Aggregate demand and the slowdown of Brazilian economic growth in 2011-2014]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 803-833, December.
    19. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Linda Yueh, 2010. "Thirty years of legal and economic reform in China: growth, institutions, and laws," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 117-132.
    21. Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Does Africa grow slower than Asia and Latin America?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    22. Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1984. "Latin American Debt: I Don't Think We Are in Kansas Anymore," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 335-403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vinish Kathuria & Rajesh Raj Natarajan, 2022. "What Role Has Structural Change Played in Growth Accelerations for the Indian States? An Analysis for Pre- and Post-liberalization Periods," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 23(1), pages 61-85, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pritchett, Lant & Sen, Kunal & Kar, Sabyasachi & Raihan, Selim, 2016. "Trillions gained and lost: Estimating the magnitude of growth episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 279-291.
    2. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    4. Kerekes, Monika, 2007. "Analyzing patterns of economic growth: a production frontier approach," Discussion Papers 2007/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2019. "The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes: evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 269-300, January.
    6. Sabyasachi Kar & Selim Raihan & Kunal Sen, 2017. "Do economic institutions matter for growth episodes?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-092-17, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    7. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/205, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Erdenebat Bataa, 2019. "Growth and Inflation Regimes in Greater Tumen Initiative Area," The Northeast Asian Economic Review, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, vol. 7(1), pages 15-29, November.
    10. Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2022. "Specialize or diversify? And in What? Trade composition, quality of specialization, and persistent growth [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 301-337.
    11. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    12. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Cuberes, David, 2011. "Medium Term Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions," MPRA Paper 94273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2011.
    13. David Cuberes & Michał Jerzmanowski, 2009. "Democracy, Diversification and Growth Reversals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(540), pages 1270-1302, October.
    14. Selim Raihan & Sabyasachi Kar & Kunal Sen, 2018. "Transitions between growth episodes: Do institutions matter and do some institutions matter more?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-099-18, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    15. Sen, Kunal, 2013. "The Political Dynamics of Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 71-86.
    16. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    17. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2015. "Testing Capital Accumulation-Driven Growth Models in a Multiple-Regime Framework: Evidence from South Africa," CEF.UP Working Papers 1501, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2010. "Output collapses and productivity destruction," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 359-387, June.
    19. Jean‐Marc B. Atsebi, 2024. "Igniting growth surges: Lessons from the past," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 525-569, April.
    20. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Duration Analysis; Trend Shifts; Trend Extraction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:85126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.