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Strict local martingales and bubbles

Author

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  • Kardaras, Constantinos
  • Kreher, Dörte
  • Nikeghbali, Ashkan

Abstract

This paper deals with asset price bubbles modeled by strict local martingales. With any strict local martingale, one can associate a new measure, which is studied in detail in the first part of the paper. In the second part, we determine the “default term” apparent in risk-neutral option prices if the underlying stock exhibits a bubble modeled by a strict local martingale. Results for certain path dependent options and last passage time formulas are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Kardaras, Constantinos & Kreher, Dörte & Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2015. "Strict local martingales and bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64967, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:64967
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/64967/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hardy Hulley, 2010. "The Economic Plausibility of Strict Local Martingales in Financial Modelling," Research Paper Series 279, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151, January.
    3. Peter Carr & Travis Fisher & Johannes Ruf, 2014. "On the hedging of options on exploding exchange rates," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 115-144, January.
    4. Soumik Pal & Philip Protter, 2007. "Analysis of continuous strict local martingales via h-transforms," Papers 0711.1136, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
    5. Daniel Fernholz & Ioannis Karatzas, 2010. "On optimal arbitrage," Papers 1010.4987, arXiv.org.
    6. Erhan Bayraktar & Constantinos Kardaras & Hao Xing, 2012. "Strict local martingale deflators and valuing American call-type options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 275-291, April.
    7. Alexander Cox & David Hobson, 2005. "Local martingales, bubbles and option prices," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 477-492, October.
    8. Patrick Cheridito & Ashkan Nikeghbali & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Processes of Class Sigma, Last Passage Times, and Drawdowns," Published Paper Series 2012-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Pal, Soumik & Protter, Philip, 2010. "Analysis of continuous strict local martingales via h-transforms," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(8), pages 1424-1443, August.
    10. Ju-Yi Yen & Marc Yor, 2011. "Call Option Prices Based on Bessel Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 329-347, June.
    11. Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2009. "Forward And Futures Prices With Bubbles," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(07), pages 901-924.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kreher, Dörte & Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2015. "A new kind of augmentation of filtrations suitable for a change of probability measure by a strict local martingale," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 94-101.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    3. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Marcel Nutz, 2018. "A risk-neutral equilibrium leading to uncertain volatility pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 281-295, April.
    4. Petteri Piiroinen & Lassi Roininen & Tobias Schoden & Martin Simon, 2018. "Asset Price Bubbles: An Option-based Indicator," Papers 1805.07403, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    5. Martin Herdegen & Dorte Kreher, 2021. "Bubbles in discrete time models," Papers 2104.12740, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    6. Martin Herdegen & Dörte Kreher, 2022. "Bubbles in discrete-time models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 899-925, October.
    7. Li, Xue-Mei, 2017. "Strict local martingales: Examples," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 65-68.
    8. Umut Cetin & Kasper Larsen, 2020. "Uniqueness in Cauchy problems for diffusive real-valued strict local martingales," Papers 2007.15041, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    9. Petteri Piiroinen & Lassi Roininen & Martin Simon, 2019. "Brexit Risk Implied by the SABR Martingale Defect in the EUR-GBP Smile," Papers 1912.05773, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    10. Cetin, Umut, 2018. "Diffusion transformations, Black-Scholes equation and optimal stopping," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87261, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Antoine Jacquier & Martin Keller-Ressel, 2015. "Implied volatility in strict local martingale models," Papers 1508.04351, arXiv.org.
    12. Christian Furrer, 2022. "Scaled insurance cash flows: representation and computation via change of measure techniques," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 359-382, April.
    13. Christa Cuchiero & Guido Gazzani & Janka Moller & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2023. "Joint calibration to SPX and VIX options with signature-based models," Papers 2301.13235, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    14. Peter Imkeller & Nicolas Perkowski, 2015. "The existence of dominating local martingale measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 685-717, October.
    15. Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann, 2020. "A constraint-based notion of illiquidity," Papers 2004.12394, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strict local martingales; bubbles;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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