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The UK intranational trade cycle

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  • Artis, Michael
  • Okubo, Toshihiro

Abstract

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP are not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the “UK idiosyncrasy” they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples

Suggested Citation

  • Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "The UK intranational trade cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33211, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:33211
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33211/
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    2. Jürgen Bierbaumer, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    3. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Globalization and business cycle transmission," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 91-99, August.
    4. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

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