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Aggregate and regional disaggregate fluctuations

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  • Quah, Danny

Abstract

This paper models uctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonsta- tionary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate uctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state| regardless of which it happens to be|contains strong predictive power for aggregate uctuations. This eect is dicult to understand if only ag- gregate disturbances aect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a \wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Quah, Danny, 1996. "Aggregate and regional disaggregate fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2081, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:2081
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/2081/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate disturbance; business cycle; distribution dynamics; regional fluctuation; stochastic kernel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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