IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/17279.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Irrational exuberance, entrepreneurial finance and public policy

Author

Listed:
  • Coelho, Marta
  • de Meza, David
  • Reyniers, Diane J.

Abstract

Unrealistic optimism is a well documented phenomenon. This paper argues that it is important in many economic contexts. Focusing on start-up finance for businesses, optimism may be responsible for or consistent with features such as credit rationing or redlining that are normally taken as symptoms of under-provision of finance requiring intervention to expand lending. Optimism leads to the opposite conclusion, at least if it is legitimate to use fiscal policy to counteract systematic error. The paper reports on an experiment in which, due to optimism, the lower the prizes to entrepreneurial activity the higher the subject's expected income.

Suggested Citation

  • Coelho, Marta & de Meza, David & Reyniers, Diane J., 2004. "Irrational exuberance, entrepreneurial finance and public policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 17279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:17279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/17279/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    2. Michael Manove & A. Jorge Padilla, 1999. "Banking (Conservatively) with Optimists," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 324-350, Summer.
    3. de Meza, David & Webb, David, 1999. "Wealth, Enterprise and Credit Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 153-163, April.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Joulfaian, David & Rosen, Harvey S, 1994. "Sticking It Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 53-75, February.
    5. de Meza, David & Southey, Clive, 1996. "The Borrower's Curse: Optimism, Finance and Entrepreneurship," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 375-386, March.
    6. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
    7. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 26-60, January.
    8. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-1077, October.
    9. Richard H. Thaler & Cass R. Sunstein, 2023. "Libertarian paternalism," Chapters, in: Cass R. Sunstein & Lucia A. Reisch (ed.), Research Handbook on Nudges and Society, chapter 1, pages 10-16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. David G. Blanchflower & Phillip B. Levine & David J. Zimmerman, 2003. "Discrimination in the Small-Business Credit Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 930-943, November.
    11. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1994. "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 334-347, Summer.
    12. Ross, Stephen L. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2004. "Redlining, the Community Reinvestment Act, and private mortgage insurance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 278-297, March.
    13. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    14. Simon C. Parker, 2002. "Do Banks Ration Credit to New Enterprises? And Should Governments Intervene?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 162-195, May.
    15. Fan, Wei & White, Michelle J, 2003. "Personal Bankruptcy and the Level of Entrepreneurial Activity," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 543-567, October.
    16. David de Meza & David C. Webb, 1987. "Too Much Investment: A Problem of Asymmetric Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 281-292.
    17. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April.
    18. Evans, David S & Leighton, Linda S, 1989. "Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 519-535, June.
    19. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    20. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    21. Jürg Niehans, 1997. "Adam Smith and the Welfare Cost of Optimism," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 185-200, Summer.
    22. Jeremy Berkowitz & Michelle J. White, 2004. "Bankruptcy and Small Firms' Access to Credit," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 69-84, Spring.
    23. Waldman, Michael, 1994. "Systematic Errors and the Theory of Natural Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 482-497, June.
    24. de Meza, David & Webb, David, 2000. "Does credit rationing imply insufficient lending?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 215-234, November.
    25. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vesa Kanniainen & Panu Poutvaara, 2007. "Imperfect Transmission of Tacit Knowledge and other Barriers to Entrepreneurship," CESifo Working Paper Series 2053, CESifo.
    2. Dai, Na & Ivanov, Vladimir & Cole, Rebel A., 2017. "Entrepreneurial optimism, credit availability, and cost of financing: Evidence from U.S. small businesses," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 289-307.
    3. Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007. "Optimism and economic choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
    4. Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2007. "Entrepreneurship and the process of firms’ entry, survival and growth," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(3), pages 455-488, June.
    5. Karel Janda, 2006. "Lender and Borrower as Principal and Agent," Working Papers IES 2006/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2006.
    6. Hyytinen, Ari & Pajarinen, Mika, 2005. "Why Are All New Entrepreneurs Better Than Average? Evidence from Subjective Failure Rate Expectations," Discussion Papers 987, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    7. Vesa Kanniainen & Seppo Kari & Jouko Ylä-Liedenpohja, 2005. "The Start-Up and Growth Stages in Enterprise Formation: The “New View” of Dividend Taxation Reconsidered," CESifo Working Paper Series 1476, CESifo.
    8. Linda Bergset, 2015. "The Rationality and Irrationality of Financing Green Start-Ups," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-26, November.
    9. Vesa Kanniainen & Seppo Kari & Jouko Ylä-Liedenpohja, 2007. "Nordic dual income taxation of entrepreneurs," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 14(4), pages 407-426, August.
    10. Hyytinen, Ari & Lahtonen, Jukka & Pajarinen, Mika, 2012. "Entrepreneurial optimism and survival," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland.
    11. Marco Vivarelli, 2012. "Entrepreneurship and Post-Entry Performance: the Microeconomic Evidence," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1286, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Marco Vivarelli, 2013. "Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(6), pages 1453-1495, December.
    13. Vivarelli, Marco, 2012. "Drivers of entrepreneurship and post-entry performance : microeconomic evidence from advanced and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6245, The World Bank.
    14. Vivarelli, Marco, 2012. "Entrepreneurship in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Microeconomic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 6513, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Michael Peneder, 2006. "Teilstudie 20: Neugründung und Entwicklung von Unternehmen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27459, August.
    16. Kenneth L. Simons & Thomas Åstebro, 2010. "Entrepreneurs Seeking Gains: Profit Motives and Risk Aversion in Inventors’ Commercialization Decisions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 863-888, December.
    17. Wim Naudé, 2008. "Entrepreneurship in Economic Development," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Planificarea financiarǎ pentru decizii asupra antreprenoriatului - Partea întâi [Financial planning for decisions on entrepreneurship, Part I]," MPRA Paper 74829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Oct 2016.
    19. Karel Janda, 2006. "Agency Theory Approach to the Contracting between Lender and Borrower [Smluvní vztah mezi věřitelem a dlužníkem z hlediska přístupu teorie zastoupení]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 34-47.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Parker, Simon C., 2013. "Do serial entrepreneurs run successively better-performing businesses?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 652-666.
    22. Stephen Weymouth & J. Lawrence Broz, 2013. "Government Partisanship and Property Rights: Cross-Country Firm-Level Evidence," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 229-256, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:bla:scotjp:v:49:y:2002:i:2:p:162-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hvide, Hans K. & Møen, Jarle, 2007. "Liquidity Constraints and Entrepreneurial Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. de Meza, David & Webb, David, 2000. "Does credit rationing imply insufficient lending?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 215-234, November.
    4. David de Meza, 2002. "Overlending?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 17-31, February.
    5. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2018. "Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment," NBER Working Papers 25350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Blanchflower, David G. & Shadforth, Chris, 2007. "Entrepreneurship in the UK," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 257-364, July.
    7. Thomas A. Garrett & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Creating a Policy Environment for Entrepreneurs," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 525-552, Fall.
    8. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    9. David Blanchflower, 2009. "Minority self-employment in the United States and the impact of affirmative action programs," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 361-396, June.
    10. Felipe Balmaceda, 2018. "Entrepreneurship: skills and financing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 871-886, April.
    11. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2013. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Does it Pay?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1237, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Thomas Åstbro & Irwin Bernhardt, 2005. "The Winner’s Curse of Human Capital," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 63-78, February.
    13. Yannis Georgellis & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Entrepreneurship and the policy environment," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Mar), pages 95-112.
    14. Blanchflower, David G., 2007. "Entrepreneurship in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 3130, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Mirjam van Praag, 2003. "Initial Capital Constraints Hinder Entrepreneurial Venture Performance: An empirical analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 887, CESifo.
    16. Philipp Köllinger & Maria Minniti & Christian Schade, 2005. "Entrepreneurial Overconfidence: Evidence from a C.A.R.T. Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 465, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Block, Jörn & Brockmann, Heiner & Klandt, Heinz & Kohn, Karsten, 2008. "Gründungshemmnisse in Marktmechanismen und Marktumfeld: Facetten empirischer Evidenz [Start-up Barriers in Germany: A Review of the Empirical Literature]," MPRA Paper 9358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2008. "Investor protection and business creation," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 113-122, June.
    19. Andrew E. Burke & Aoife Hanley, 2003. "How Do Banks Pick Safer Ventures? A Theory Relating the Importance of Risk Aversion and Collateral to Interest Margins and Credit Rationing," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 13-24, Summer.
    20. Akyol, Ahmet & Athreya, Kartik, 2011. "Credit and self-employment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 363-385, March.
    21. Hans K. Hvide & Jarle Møen, 2010. "Lean and Hungry or Fat and Content? Entrepreneurs' Wealth and Start-Up Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1242-1258, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unrealistic optimism; finance; policy; experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:17279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.