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Can we prove a bank guilty of creating systemic risk? A minority report

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  • Danielsson, Jon
  • James, Kevin R.
  • Valenzuela, Marcela
  • Zer, Ilknur

Abstract

Since increasing a bank's capital requirement to improve the stability of the financial system imposes costs upon the bank, a regulator should ideally be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that banks classified as systemically risky really do create systemic risk before subjecting them to this capital punishment. Evaluating the performance of two leading systemic risk models, we show that estimation error alone prevents the reliable identification of the most systemically risky banks. We conclude that it will be a considerable challenge to develop a riskometer that is both sound and reliable enough to provide an adequate foundation for macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2015. "Can we prove a bank guilty of creating systemic risk? A minority report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119462, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:119462
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/119462/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-251, August.
    2. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    3. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Výrost, Tomáš, 2020. "Increasing systemic risk during the Covid-19 pandemic: A cross-quantilogram analysis of the banking sector," EconStor Preprints 222580, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Kubitza, Christian & Gründl, Helmut, 2016. "Systemic risk: Time-lags and persistence," ICIR Working Paper Series 20/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    5. Tente, Natalia & von Westernhagen, Natalja & Slopek, Ulf, 2017. "M-PRESS-CreditRisk: A holistic micro- and macroprudential approach to capital requirements," Discussion Papers 15/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Thomas F. Coleman & Alex LaPlante & Alexey Rubtsov, 2018. "Analysis of the SRISK measure and its application to the Canadian banking and insurance industries," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 547-570, November.
    7. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Alberto Maria Sorrentino, 2020. "Measuring CoVaR: An Empirical Comparison," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 511-528, February.
    8. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    9. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Natalia Tente & Natalja Von Westernhagen & Ulf Slopek, 2019. "M‐PRESS‐CreditRisk: Microprudential and Macroprudential Capital Requirements for Credit Risk under Systemic Stress," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1923-1961, October.
    11. Naohisa Hirakata & Yosuke Kido & Jie Liang Thum, 2020. "Systemic risk and the Fallacy of Composition: Empirical Evidence from Japanese Regional Bank," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 293-325, September.
    12. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    13. Mathias Mandla Manguzvane & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "South African Banks’ Cross-Border Systemic Risk Exposure: An Application of the GAS Copula Marginal Expected Shortfall," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, March.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    16. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2021. "Systemic-systematic risk in financial system: A dynamic ranking based on expectiles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 330-365.
    17. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2021. "The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: Identifying systemically important banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 7-26, January.
    18. Abdelkader DERBALI & Ali LAMOUCHI, 2020. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: identifying systemically important banks in Eurozone Abstract: Editor’s Note - This paper has been retracted from our journal due to bogu," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 87-122, June.
    19. Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Lidia Sanchis-Marco, 2023. "Measuring Systemic Risk Using Multivariate Quantile-Located ES Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-72.
    20. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2018. "Forecasting bank failures and stress testing: A machine learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 440-455.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; macroprudential policy; finsancial sstability; risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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