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Quasi-experimental shift-share research designs

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  • Borusyak, Kirill
  • Hull, Peter
  • Jaravel, Xavier

Abstract

Many studies use shift-share (or "Bartik") instruments, which average a set of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which identification follows from the quasi-random assignment of shocks, while exposure shares are allowed to be endogenous. The framework is motivated by an equivalence result: the orthogonality between a shift-share instrument and an unobserved residual can be represented as the orthogonality between the underlying shocks and a shock-level unobservable. SSIV regression coefficients can similarly be obtained from an equivalent shock-level regression, motivating shock-level conditions for their consistency. We discuss and illustrate several practical insights of this framework in the setting of Autor et al. (2013), estimating the effect of Chinese import competition on manufacturing employment across U.S. commuting zones.

Suggested Citation

  • Borusyak, Kirill & Hull, Peter & Jaravel, Xavier, 2022. "Quasi-experimental shift-share research designs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117788, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:117788
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/117788/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bartik instruments; instrumental variables; quasi-experiments; shift-share instruments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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