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Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?

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  • Hepburn, Cameron
  • O'Callaghan, Brian
  • Stern, Nicholas
  • Stiglitz, Joseph
  • Zenghelis, Dimitri

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&D is less important. These recommendations are contextualized through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hepburn, Cameron & O'Callaghan, Brian & Stern, Nicholas & Stiglitz, Joseph & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2020. "Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112458, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112458
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; Covid-19; fiscal stimulus; green recovery; coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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