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Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era

Author

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  • Dimitrios Kanelis
  • Pierre L. Siklos

Abstract

We combine modern methods from Speech Emotion Recognition and Natural Language Processing with high-frequency financial data to precisely analyze how the vocal emotions and language of ECB President Mario Draghi affect the yields and yield spreads of major euro area economies. This novel approach to central bank communication reveals that vocal and verbal emotions significantly impact the yield curve, with effects varying in magnitude and direction. Positive signals raise German and French yields, while negative signals increase Italian yields. Our analysis of bond spreads indicates that positive communication influences the risk-free yield component, whereas negative communication affects the risk premium. Additionally, our study contributes by constructing a synchronized dataset for voice and language analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Kanelis & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era," CAMA Working Papers 2022-75, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, revised Jun 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-75
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Han, Xinfen & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "More than words: Fed Chairs’ communication during congressional testimonies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    artificial intelligence; asset prices; communication; ECB; high-frequency data; speech emotion recognition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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