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Modeling ISIL terror attacks and their fatality rates with a Bayesian reversible jump marked point process

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  • Andrew G. Chapple

Abstract

This paper attempts to find different time periods since ISIL’s formation in 2013 in which the rate of ISIL attacks or their effectiveness in terms of fatalities differ. A Bayesian model is presented for marked point process data that separates the time scale into disjoint intervals as a function of the rate of the attacks and the average number of fatalities for each attack which are the marks for the model. The model is endowed with priors to discourage intervals with few events and borrow strength among rates and intensities of adjacent intervals and uses the reversible jump approach introduced by Green (1996) to allow the number of intervals to vary as a function of the rates and intensities of attacks. Application results show that the hazard of an ISIL attack has increased drastically since 6/8/2014 since they took Mosul and again increased after 2/23/16, which corresponds with major military intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew G. Chapple, 2018. "Modeling ISIL terror attacks and their fatality rates with a Bayesian reversible jump marked point process," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/09, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2018_09
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    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2018_09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Gasbarra & S. R. Karia, 2000. "Analysis of Competing Risks by Using Bayesian Smoothing," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 605-617, December.
    2. Andrew G. Chapple, 2016. "A Bayesian Reversible Jump Piecewise Hazard approach for modeling rate changes in mass shootings," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 59(3), pages 19-31.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marked Point Process; Bayesian Analysis; Reversible Jump; ISIL.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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