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The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?

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  • Mariam Camarero
  • Javier Ordóñez
  • Cecilio Tamarit

Abstract

In this paper we have applied two different but complementary techniques and approaches to the study of the evolution of the dollar real exchange rate in relation with the Euro-area currencies. First, using the panel cointegration methodology for both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels, we study the long-run relationship between the bilateral real exchange rate of the dollar versus 10 European countries, Canada and Japan. Second, in a time series framework, we use Euro-area aggregate or "synthetic" variables to study the behavior of the dollar/Euro real exchange rate. The selected specification obtained using the panel techniques is an eclectic one, that supports the Meese and Rogoff (1988) real interest rate differential model augmented with two supply-side variables: the real oil dependence and the relative productivity in the non-tradables. The Euro-area variables support this type of results, although an additional determinant from the demand-side should be added (the relative public expenditure) whereas the real oil variable would be only significant in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?," European Economy Group Working Papers 16, European Economy Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:eeg:euroeg:16
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    2. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    3. Camarero, Mariam & Ordóñez, Javier, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 444-449.
    4. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    5. Sourafel Girma, 2005. "Absorptive Capacity and Productivity Spillovers from FDI: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 281-306, June.
    6. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2014. "Desalinhamentos Cambiais, Interdependência, Crises, Guerras cambiais: Uma avaliação empírica," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    7. Jaime Turrion & Carmela Martin, 2003. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union and Foreign Direct Investment Adjustments," European Economy Group Working Papers 24, European Economy Group.
    8. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustment and crisis: the case of EU real exchange rates," Working Papers 2019/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordoñez & Mariam Camarero, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Terms Of Trade In Determining The Real Exchange Rates Of Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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