IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/wpaper/1201.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Carmen Díaz-Roldán

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Vicente Esteve

    (Universidad de Valencia and Universidad de La Laguna)

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries, over the years 1970-2007. Specifically, we deal with the case of those countries that have experienced current account deficits in more than half of the years throughout the period of analysis, and address the recent critique of Bohn (2007) on unit root and cointegration tests of the intertemporal budget constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2012. "Sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries," Working Papers 1201, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_1201.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Nicholas Tabakis, 2000. "Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 599-603.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    4. Jyh-lin, Wu & Fountas, Stilianos & Show-lin, Chen, 1996. "Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 193-198, August.
    5. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    8. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    9. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2.
    12. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    15. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    16. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    17. Reuven Glick & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Asia and the global financial crisis: conference summary," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar15.
    18. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    19. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    20. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    21. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "On the solvency of nations: are global imbalances consistent with intertemporal budget constraints?," International Finance Discussion Papers 975, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
    23. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2001. "Are current account deficits sustainable?: Evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 219-224, August.
    24. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
    25. Durdu, C. Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2013. "On the solvency of nations: Cross-country evidence on the dynamics of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 762-780.
    26. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    27. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    28. Mariam Camarero & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "External imbalances and growth," Working Papers 2017/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    29. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    30. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    31. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February.
    32. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
    33. repec:bla:scandj:v:84:y:1982:i:2:p:147-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    35. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    36. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    37. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    38. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    39. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    40. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
    41. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
    42. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    43. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 211-288.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    2. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2015. "Savings, the size of the net foreign asset position, and the dynamics of current accounts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 353-370.
    3. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    4. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
    5. Mariana Hatmanu & Cristina Cautisanu & Mihaela Ifrim, 2020. "The Impact of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and European Business Climate on Economic Growth in Romania: An ARDL Approach with Structural Breaks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
    6. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "The Pressure Is On: How Geopolitical Tensions Impact Institutional Fiscal and External Stability Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 11067, CESifo.
    7. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    8. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordóñez, Javier, 2024. "Gas price shocks, the current account, and the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the EU," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2023. "External sustainability in Spanish economy: Bubbles and crises, 1970–2020," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 60-80, February.
    10. Siranova, Maria, 2024. "Statistical omissions as the stabilizing factor of net foreign assets in EU countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2022. "Can a country borrow forever? The unsustainable trajectory of international debt: the case of Spain," Working Papers 2202, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    12. Dissou, Yazid & Nafie, Yousra, 2019. "Sustainability of current account deficits: Evidence from Egypt using an asymmetric ARDL model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paolo Jose Regis, 2014. "On the changes in the sustainability of European external debt: what have we learned," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    14. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    2. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2023. "External sustainability in Spanish economy: Bubbles and crises, 1970–2020," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 60-80, February.
    3. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2022. "Can a country borrow forever? The unsustainable trajectory of international debt: the case of Spain," Working Papers 2202, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    4. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    5. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    6. Christophe Andre & Mehmet Balcilar & Tsangyao Chang & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Current account sustainability in G7 and BRICS: Evidence from a long-memory model with structural breaks," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 638-654, August.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "External imbalances in a monetary union. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Working Papers 10-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    8. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    9. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    10. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Papers hal-04141160, HAL.
    11. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    12. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
    13. Natalya Ketenci & Vasudeva N. R. Murthy, 2018. "Some determinants of life expectancy in the United States: results from cointegration tests under structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 508-525, July.
    14. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2015. "Testing for external sustainability under a monetary integration process. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 343-349.
    15. Natalya KETENCİ & Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    16. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    17. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Are current account deficits really sustainable in the G-7 countries?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 190-201.
    18. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    19. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "Is technology still a major driver of health expenditure in the United States? Evidence from cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 29-50, March.
    20. Singh Tarlok, 2017. "Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Data Estimators," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    External imbalances; Sustainability; Current account;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicente Esteve (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvales.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.