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Identifying monetary policy shocks via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach

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  • Dmitry Kulikov
  • Aleksei Netsunajev

Abstract

In this paper we contribute to the literature on the identification of macroeconomic shocks by proposing a Bayesian SVAR with timevarying volatility of innovations that depend on a hidden Markov process, referred to as an MS-SVAR. With sufficient statistical information in the data, the distinct volatility regimes of the errors allow all the structural SVAR matrices and impulse response functions to be identified without the need for conventional a priori parameter restrictions. We give mathematical identification conditions and propose a flexible Gibbs sampling approach for the posterior inference on MS-SVAR parameters. The new methodology is applied to the US, euro area and Estonian macroeconomic series, where the effects of monetary policy and other shocks are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Kulikov & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2013. "Identifying monetary policy shocks via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-9, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2013-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    2. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2019. "The Multivariate Simultaneous Unobserved Compenents Model and Identification via Heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    3. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    4. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2020. "Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Netšunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2017. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 48-62.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-002 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netésunajev, Aleksei, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances: The interaction between US monetary policy and the stock market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-031, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    9. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Justyna Wróblewska, 2020. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability in Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Structural Bayesian MSH-VAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 369-412, December.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-015 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching model; volatility regimes; Bayesian inference; monetary policy shocks; SVAR analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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