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Las tendencias mundiales y el futuro de América Latina

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  • Bitar, Sergio

Abstract

El diseño de políticas públicas en America Latina adolece de escasa profundidad estratégica e insuficiente perspectiva de largo plazo. Ello limita la posibilidad de aprovechar oportunidades o contener riesgos a tiempo. Numerosos países desarrollados de Europa y Asia han fortalecido estas capacidades. America Latina puede ganar conociendo y participando activamente en estos análisis. Este texto busca contribuir a esta tarea presentando una síntesis de seis tendencias globales dominantes (y explorando escenarios posibles), identificadas por los principales grupos de prospectiva de países avanzados. En seguida se explora el efecto potencial de tales tendencias y escenarios sobre cada una de cinco metas prioritarias destacadas por gobiernos, líderes políticos y sociales y expertos de los países latinoamericanos. En particular, se abordan los temas de gobernabilidad, desigualdad, productividad, integración y alianzas internacionales, desarrollo sustentable y cambio climático. Luego se deducen aquellas áreas que ameritan un seguimiento permanente, incluyendo las estrategias y políticas de naciones avanzadas e innovadoras. Por último se señala cómo organizar esta función prospectiva y reflexión estratégica en gobiernos e institutos, y la conveniencia de articular una red latinoamericana. Se ofrece al lector los vínculos directos a los estudios referidos.

Suggested Citation

  • Bitar, Sergio, 2014. "Las tendencias mundiales y el futuro de América Latina," Gestión Pública 35890, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col047:35890
    Note: Incluye bibliografía.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cuervo González, Luis Mauricio, 2012. "Prospectiva económica: una primera aproximación al estado del arte," Gestión Pública 7333, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    3. -, 2013. "Desarrollo sostenible en América Latina y el Caribe. Seguimiento de la agenda de las Naciones Unidas para el desarrollo post-2015 y Río+20," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 3188 edited by Cepal.
    4. -, 2013. "Recursos naturales en UNASUR: situación y tendencias para una agenda de desarrollo regional," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 3116 edited by Cepal.
    5. Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6062.
    6. Homi Kharas, 2010. "The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 285, OECD Publishing.
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