IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20242980.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Digital euro demand: design, individuals’ payment preferences and socioeconomic factors

Author

Listed:
  • Lambert, Claudia
  • Larkou, Chloe
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Pellicani, Antonella
  • Sintonen, Meri

Abstract

By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3,000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand. JEL Classification: E41, E50, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Lambert, Claudia & Larkou, Chloe & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pellicani, Antonella & Sintonen, Meri, 2024. "Digital euro demand: design, individuals’ payment preferences and socioeconomic factors," Working Paper Series 2980, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242980
    Note: 1559770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2980~5f64961c8f.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Tobias Schmidt & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments, Currency Demand, and Withdrawal Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1753-1786, December.
    2. Whited, Toni M. & Wu, Yufeng & Xiao, Kairong, 2023. "Will Central Bank Digital Currency Disintermediate Banks?," IHS Working Paper Series 47, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Mark Egan & Ali Hortaçsu & Gregor Matvos, 2017. "Deposit Competition and Financial Fragility: Evidence from the US Banking Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 169-216, January.
    4. Villas-Boas, Sofia B., 2006. "Vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers: inference with limited data," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt0z26d2v9, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    5. Bidder, Rhys & Jackson, Timothy P. & Rottner, Matthias, 2024. "CBDC and banks: Disintermediating fast and slow," Discussion Papers 15/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Lola Hernandez & Nicole Jonker & Anneke Kosse, 2017. "Cash versus Debit Card: The Role of Budget Control," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, March.
    7. Sofia Berto Villas-Boas, 2007. "Vertical Relationships between Manufacturers and Retailers: Inference with Limited Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 625-652.
    8. Mr. Marco Gross & Elisa Letizia, 2023. "To Demand or Not to Demand: On Quantifying the Future Appetite for CBDC," IMF Working Papers 2023/009, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    10. Nicole Jonker & Anneke Kosse, 2013. "Estimating Cash Usage: The Impact of Survey Design on Research Outcomes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 19-44, March.
    11. Rubin, Donald B, 1986. "Statistical Matching Using File Concatenation with Adjusted Weights and Multiple Imputations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 87-94, January.
    12. Rhys Bidder & Timothy Jackson & Matthias Rottner, 2024. "CBDC and Banks: Disintermediating Fast and Slow," Working Papers 202407, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    13. Kim Huynh & Jozsef Molnar & Oleksandr Shcherbakov & Qinghui Yu, 2020. "Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency," Staff Working Papers 20-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. Jiaqi Li & Andrew Usher & Yu Zhu, 2024. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices," Staff Working Papers 24-4, Bank of Canada.
    15. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonker, Nicole & van der Cruijsen, Carin & Bijlsma, Michiel & Bolt, Wilko, 2022. "Pandemic payment patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    3. Yue Cai, 2021. "Measuring Market Power in the IPO Underwriter," Working Papers 2108, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    4. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    5. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    6. Donna, Javier D. & Pereira, Pedro & Trindade, Andre & Yoshida, Renan C., 2020. "Direct-to-Consumer Sales by Manufacturers and Bargaining," MPRA Paper 105773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Stiegert, Kyle W. & Bozic, Marin, 2013. "On Endogeneity Of Retail Market Power In An Equilibrium Analysis: A Control Function Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149830, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Villas-Boas, Sofia B & Hellerstein, Rebecca, 2006. "Identification of Supply Models of Manufacturer and Retailer Oligopoly Pricing," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9zh144zt, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    9. Allais, Olivier & Etilé, Fabrice & Lecocq, Sébastien, 2015. "Mandatory labels, taxes and market forces: An empirical evaluation of fat policies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 27-44.
    10. Bonnet, Céline & Requillart, Vincent, 2010. "Is The Eu Sugar Policy Reform Likely To Increase Obesity?," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116414, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Freyberger, Joachim, 2015. "Asymptotic theory for differentiated products demand models with many markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 162-181.
    12. Gianpaolo Rossini & Cecilia Vergari, 2014. "The Discrete Charm of Uniform Linear Pricing of an Input Production Joint Venture," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 68-83, October.
    13. Svetlana Abramova & Rainer Böhme & Helmut Elsinger & Helmut Stix & Martin Summer, 2022. "What can CBDC designers learn from asking potential users? Results from a survey of Austrian residents (Svetlana Abramova, Rainer Böhme, Helmut Elsinger, Helmut Stix, Martin Summer)," Working Papers 241, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Celine Bonnet & Pierre Dubois & Sofia B. Villas Boas & Daniel Klapper, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Role of Nonlinear Wholesale Pricing and Vertical Restraints on Cost Pass-Through," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 500-515, May.
    15. Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Martin O'Connell, 2020. "How Well Targeted Are Soda Taxes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3661-3704, November.
    16. Qin, Fei & Wu, Steven Y., 2022. "Estimating Consumer Segments and Choices from Limited Information: The Application of Machine Learning Methods," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322473, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Sylvia Hristakeva, 2022. "Determinants of Channel Profitability: Retailers’ Control over Product Selections as Contracting Leverage," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 315-335, March.
    18. Shohei Yoshida, 2018. "Bargaining power and firm profits in asymmetric duopoly: an inverted-U relationship," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 139-158, June.
    19. Emanuele Bacchiega & Olivier Bonroy & Emmanuel Petrakis, 2018. "Contract contingency in vertically related markets," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 772-791, October.
    20. Allain, Marie-Laure & Avignon, Rémi & Chambolle, Claire, 2020. "Purchasing alliances and product variety," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank digital currency; demand estimation; design attributes; structural model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242980. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.