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Stress testing with multiple scenarios: a tale on tails and reverse stress scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Aikman, David
  • Angotti, Romain
  • Budnik, Katarzyna

Abstract

This paper proposes an operational approach to stress testing, allowing one to assess the banking sector’s vulnerability in multiple plausible macro-financial scenarios. The approach helps identify macro-financial risk factors of particular relevance for the banking system and individual banks and searches for scenarios that could push them towards their worst outcomes. We demonstrate this concept using a macroprudential stress testing model for the euro area. By doing so, we show how multiple-scenario stress testing can complement single-scenario stress tests, aid in scenario design, and evaluate risks in the banking system. We also show how stress tests and scenarios can be optimized to accommodate different mandates and instruments of supervisory and macroprudential agencies. JEL Classification: E37, E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Aikman, David & Angotti, Romain & Budnik, Katarzyna, 2024. "Stress testing with multiple scenarios: a tale on tails and reverse stress scenarios," Working Paper Series 2941, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242941
    Note: 1355359
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2941~28e2ec1e42.en.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector risks; financial stability; macroprudential stress test; multiple scenarios; reverse stress testing; systemic risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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