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GDP revisions are not cool: the impact of statistical agencies’ trade-off

Author

Listed:
  • Asimakopoulos, Stylianos
  • Lalik, Magdalena
  • Paredes, Joan
  • Salvado García, José

Abstract

Official estimates of economic growth are regularly revised and therefore forecasts for GDP growth are done on the basis of ever-changing data. The economic literature has intensively studied the properties of those revisions and their implications for forecasting models. However, it is much less known about the reasons for Statistical Agencies (SAs) to revise their estimates. In order to be timely and reliable, SAs have an explicit interest in not revising their initial GDP estimates too much, while they are much more open to revise GDP components over time. More than a curiosity, we exploit this resulting cross-correlation of GDP components revisions to build a model to better forecast GDP. JEL Classification: C01, C82, E01

Suggested Citation

  • Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Lalik, Magdalena & Paredes, Joan & Salvado García, José, 2023. "GDP revisions are not cool: the impact of statistical agencies’ trade-off," Working Paper Series 2857, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232857
    Note: 1420525
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    news and noise; real-time data; revisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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